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HSH.com's Standout Innovators and Thinkers

Real estate is more than a transaction, it shapes our economy and our lives.

What will the U.S. housing market look like in 10 years?   It's a surprisingly provocative question. Before the recession, the answer might have been wildly - and incorrectly - optimistic. Today we know better, but we also lack a crystal ball. To help separate hype from reality, we asked some of the most influential and innovative thinkers in the field of real estate, mortgages and housing economics about their forecasts and ideas. Internationally sought-after experts, they spoke of accelerating affordability issues, rising mortgage rates, a greater role for the rental versus ownership market, better natural disaster planning, and much, much more. To explore the future of homeownership in America, click on a profile below.  What's your take on what housing will look like in 2026? Let us know your thoughts in our comment section.

Norm Miller, Ph.D.
University of San Diego
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BIO

When it comes to the core understanding of real estate economics and finance, Norm Miller of the University of San Diego is the expert. Widely published, Miller’s work covers many bases, from sustainability to commercial and environmental issues. Prior to joining University of San Diego, he was the academic director at University of Cincinnati where he was responsible for creating the real estate center in 2009. In addition to research publications, Miller is the author of "Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investment," which is currently the leading graduate-level textbook in this field. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Real Estate and Finance, Ohio State University
  • M.S. in Business Finance, Ohio State University
  • B.S. in Real Estate and Urban Analysis, Ohio State University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Coastal cities will continue to become more global and remain supply constrained suggesting prices will continue to rise above the rate of general inflation. Overall U.S. housing will be slightly less affordable than now as interest rates will rise slightly over the next several years."

Christopher Wedding, Ph.D.
UNC Kenan-Flagler Business school

BIO

With his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Christopher Wedding has 18 years of experience in private equity, project development, solar power finance, green building innovation, and leadership training. In addition to his faculty roles at the UNC Chapel Hill Kenan-Flagler Business School, Duke University, and the Institute for Defense and Business, Wedding is the co-founder and CEO of g-bit, a clean energy market research firm; founder and managing director of IronOak Energy, a clean energy advisory and development firm; a senior adviser at Cherokee Investment Partners, a private equity and venture firm; and one of the earliest LEED Accredited Professionals with the U.S. Green Building Council. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. and M.S. in Business, Environmental Management and City Planning, UNC-Chapel Hill  
  • B.S. in Environmental Science, Western Kentucky University 

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"First, there will be less homeownership and more rentals, due to more job hopping, millennial preferences, and slower asset value appreciation. Second, there will be more solar power, where third-party ownership, better debt options, and falling solar capital costs increasingly make solar the cheapest power option. Lastly, there will be healthier homes, where better air filtration, non-toxic materials, and less air leakage translates to fewer problems relating to asthma, allergies, and other health concerns."

Kemberley Washington,CPA
Dillard University

BIO

Kemberley Washington, a CPA and accounting instructor at Dillard University, has been the financial expert the New Orleans’ media relies on to discuss a wide range of financial matters, especially in the areas of disaster financial planning, young adult issues as well as saving and prioritizing on a limited budget.

Washington joined the Accounting Department at Dillard in 2006. Since then she has received $70,000 of funding towards her authored proposals of which one was establishing the Small Business Accounting Center and for sponsorships, scholarships and other funding to assist the college.

Prior to Dillard, she served as a Special Agent in the Criminal investigation Division, Revenue Agent for the Small Business and Self-Employed Division at the Internal Revenue Service. Washington has been featured in the Journal of Accountancy in which she was selected as one out of only thirty young leaders across the nation to attend in the AICPA Leadership Academy. She was recently recognized as the Millennial 2015 Financial Person of the Year. 

EDUCATION

  • M.P.A. in Accounting, Southern University and A&M College
  • B.S. in Accounting, Southern University and A&M College

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Self-employed individuals in the U.S. housing market may have to do more work to prove their ability to repay the loan. 'No-doc' loans will be eliminated; therefore, borrowers will have to prove their income, assets and other required information."

Gary Dean Painter, Ph.D.
University of Southern California

BIO

One of the world’s foremost experts on how changing demographics impact U.S. housing markets, Painter of USC is a top influencer. Currently serving as the Director of Social Policy in the Sol Price Center for Social Innovation and Director of Research at the Lusk Center for Real Estate, he has been published in the leading real estate journals, including Journal of Housing Economics and the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, as well as Harvard Business Review. Aside from his academic career, he has served as a consultant for the National Association of Realtors, Pacific Economics Group, Burr Consulting and more. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, Berkeley 
  • B.A. in Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences, University of California, San Diego 

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Since the Recession, there has been a tremendous increase in the share of families living in single-family rentals. For example, cities like Phoenix and Atlanta had their share go up by 50% and 37% respectively. What is known is that millennials will be the driving force of change in the housing market. It will initially put pressure on multifamily rents to continue to increase, which will eventually the demand will shift to the single-family sector."

Thomas Thibodeau, Ph.D.
University of Colorado-Boulder

BIO

After receiving his Ph.D. in Economics from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1980, Thomas Thibodeau of the University of Colorado-Boulder was a research associate in the Housing Division of The Urban Institute in Washington D.C. During his tenure, he developed econometric models designed to explain spatial and temporal variation in house prices, evaluated Federal programs for subsidizing low-income housing, and served as a staff consultant for President Reagan’s Commission on housing. Thibodeau is currently serving as the Academic Director of the Real Estate Center where he is responsible for overseeing the school’s real estate curriculum at both the graduate and undergraduate levels, staffing real estate courses, directing the academic research, contributing to the real estate research, client relationship building with real estate industry members and more. His research has earned some 3,600 citations.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, SUNY at Stony Brook 
  • M.S. in Statistics, SUNY at Stony Brook 
  • M.A. in Economics, SUNY at Stony Brook 
  • B.S. in Mathematics - Management Science, University of Hartford

INSIGHT ON HOUSING MARKET SEGMENTATION

"Housing sub-markets are typically defined as geographic areas where the price per unit of housing quantity (defined using some index of housing characteristics) is constant. Housing markets are defined housing markets as geographic areas where the price of housing (per unit of service) is constant and individual housing characteristics are available for purchase."

H. Kent Baker, Ph.D.
American University

BIO

H. Kent Baker, University Professor of Finance, at the Kogod School of Business, American University, has published more than 160 peer-reviewed articles and 25 books. He has been recognized as one of the most prolific authors in finance within the past 50 years. He has received many teaching, research, and service awards, including the University Scholar/Teacher of the Year at American University. He is the past president of the Southern Finance Association and serves on the editorial advisory boards of six journals. He has served as a consultant to over 100 organizations and conducted executive and training programs in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Educational Administration and Organizational Development, American University
  • Ph.D. in Counseling and Student Development, American University
  • M.S. in Quantitative Methods, American University
  • M.A. in Training and Career Development, American University
  • D.B.A. in Finance, University of Maryland
  • M.Ed. in Educational Administration, University of Maryland
  • M.B.A. in Finance, University of Maryland
  • B.S.B.A in Management, Georgetown University 

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Several indicators suggest growing optimism for the U.S. housing market. Housing starts are likely to increase at least for the next several years due to such factors as low mortgage rates, substantial pent-up demand for housing, improved labor market, lower rental vacancy rates, a reduced level of foreclosures, consumer housing sentiment, and an increase in household formations and residential construction jobs."

Raphael Bostic, Ph.D.
University of Southern California

BIO

Dr. Raphael Bostic is an expert in homeownership, housing finance, neighborhood change, and the role of institutions in shaping housing policy effectiveness. He joined the University of Southern California faculty in 2001 where he served as a professor in the university’s school of policy, planning and development. He recently returned to USC after serving as the Assistant Secretary for Policy Development and Research at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development under the Obama Administration. He was the principle advisor for the secretary on policy research by assisting the staff to make decisions on HUD policies and programs along with budget and legislative proposals. Under his leadership, his department received funding for more than $150 million in new research, which went towards prioritization decisions and policies relating to housing and urban development. Prior, he was the Director of USC’s Master of Real Estate Development degree program and the founding director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, Stanford University 
  • B.A. at Harvard University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"There will be some increase in mortgage rates, partially due to both the expectation that rates will rise and the psychological influence that the tapering has begun, but I’m not expecting a dramatic rise. Over the long term, the goal is to reduce the government’s footprint and have the private market regain its influence in determining the cost and availability of credit."

Richard Green, Ph.D.
University of Southern California

BIO

Dr. Richard Green of the University of Southern California is currently the Director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate and his main research covers housing markets, housing policy, tax policy, transportation, mortgage finance and urban growth. Writing over 30 articles, his work has been published in the top leading journals, including the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, the Journal of Urban Economics and American Economic Review. His work has also been cited in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times and other media. Aside from his academic career, he currently is a consultant for the World Bank. During his term at University of Wisconsin, he was awarded the Teacher of the Year in 1995.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Getting a mortgage has been less about mortgage rates and more about credit availability. Mortgage rates haven’t prevented homebuying—it’s access to credit that has prevented it. It’s more about the access to credit not the price of credit."

John Diamond, Ph.D.
Rice University

BIO

John Diamond is the Edward A. and Hermena Hancock Kelly Fellow in Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute and an adjunct professor of economics at Rice University. His current research is focused on the economic effects of individual and corporate tax reform. He has also written on the economic effects of tax reform on housing values, individual portfolio allocation in the 2000s, Houston's public pension problems, and various other tax policy issues. Aside from his academic career, he is the CEO of Tax Policy Advisers,LLC, and has been a consultant on the efficacy of structural adjustment programs to the World Bank. He is currently the forum editor for the National Tax Journal.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, Rice University 

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The Mortgage Interest (tax) Deduction is more likely to encourage prospective homeowners to buy larger houses rather than to encourage significant homeownership at low- and middle-income levels. Proponents of the MID argue that subsidizing homeownership is related to positive external benefits and thus homeownership should be subsidized."

Robert Eyler, Ph.D.
Sonoma State University

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. from University of California Davis, Robert Eyler of Sonoma State University has done substantial work in macroeconomic and monetary policies. Aside from serving as a professor of Economics and Director of the Center for Regional Economic Analysis, he is also a visiting scholar at the University of Bologna and Stanford University. He is also currently the chief economist of the Marin Economic Forum, a private-public partnership targeting a sustainable future for Marin County. Eyler is the author of a book and a textbook, “Economics Sanctions: International and Policy at Work” and “Money and Banking: An International Text." He is often contacted by the media for his input for forecasting and economic impact analyses for public and private firms.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at University of California, Davis    
  • B.A. in Economics, California State University, Chino 

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The U.S. housing market in 10 years will be more of a mix of single-family and multi-family homes than in the recent past. With an aging demography, demand is shifting toward smaller homes in suburban and urban areas. Millennials (25-35 years old) are also likely to demand smaller housing over time based on slow growth of wealth and rising debt loads from education; their ability to participate in larger home purchases is small, but their desire to own will rise over time."

Bill Watkins, Ph.D.
California Lutheran University

BIO

Widely published in academic journals and featured in various media outlets, Bill Watkins of California Lutheran University is an expert on demographic trends, economic development, California issues and more. Since joining as an associate professor and executive director for the Center of Economic Research and Forecasting, Watkins assisted with the launch of the university’s Masters of Science in Economics program, which focuses on forecasting and applied research. Prior to joining Cal Lutheran, he was the executive director of the Economic Forecast Project at University of California, Santa Barbara and expanded the project’s publications and geographic scope.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
  • M.A. in Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
  • B.S. in Business Administration-Finance, California State University, Northridge

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"In California, we expect luxury markets in attractive places such as in San Bernardino, Monterey and Marin counties to do quite fine. Coastal markets in general seem to do better than inland markets, in part because coastal California is a desirable place to live."

Eli Beracha, Ph.D.
Florida International University

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. from the University of Kansas, Eli Beracha, a professor at Florida International University, has published more than 20 academic papers in the top real estate and finance journals, earning awards and features at national and international conferences, and is often quoted in the press. He is an elected member of the board of directors of the American Real Estate Society, the managing editor for the Journal of Real Estate Practice and Education and the 2015 recipient of the Kinnard Young Scholar Award. Recently, Beracha was featured in “Grand Slam Authors of Real Estate” which listed authors who published in the top five real estate journals during 2000-2012.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Finance, University of Kansas 
  • M.A. in Economics, University of Kansas
  • B.S. in Computer Engineering, University of Kansas

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Since the Great Recession, the price of residential real estate has risen sharply across the U.S. As of mid-2015, the average price of homes in the U.S. returned to be roughly in line with their fundamentals, indicated by their price-to-income, price-to-rent and other traditional measures. In the near term, however, appreciation might be a little higher fueled by the current low interest rates and the fact that new housing construction is still below the rate of household formation in the U.S.. That said, the rate of housing prices appreciation can vary significantly across the U.S. markets and some markets will substantially outperform others due to factors such as demographic changes, employment opportunities, land availability and taxes."

Zhenguo Lin, Ph.D.
Florida International University 

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. in Real Estate Finance from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Zhenguo Lin of California State University, Fullerton, has joined Florida International University. He has written groundbreaking articles for real estate and finance which have been featured in numerous media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance, and REIT Magazine. Publishing over 20 articles, his main focus of research is pricing illiquidity of private assets and housing market dynamics. Prior to joining FIU, he served as the associate director of Real Estate and Land Use Institute at California State University-Fullerton, molding students to become future leaders of real estate. In 2013, Lin was awarded the William N. Kinnard Young Scholar Award by the American Real Estate Society.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Real Estate Finance, University of Wisconsin
  • M.S. in Real Estate and Urban Economics, University of British Columbia 
  • B.S. in Management Science, Fudan University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"I am pretty optimistic with the U.S. housing market. It will appreciate at least 60% in the next 10 years."

Charles Tu, Ph.D
University of San Diego

BIO

Charles C. Tu is the Daniel F. Mulvihill Professor of Commercial Real Estate and the academic director of the Master of Science in Real Estate (MSRE) program at the University of San Diego. His research covers a variety of topics including housing valuation, smart growth and the new urbanism, commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate investment trusts, multifamily housing and retail shopping centers. Tu is committed to helping students develop not only strong academic fundamentals, but also practical skills. He teaches ARGUS software in the MSRE program and is the faculty advisor in the ARGUS Software University Challenge. Under his guidance, USD’s MSRE students won this international case competition four times; the two other times the competition was held, the USD team placed second. Tu is also an active educator of real estate professionals. He teaches an ARGUS training workshop at USD, and is an instructor for education programs offered by professional associations such as the Urban Land Institute and the Commercial Real Estate Development Association.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Finance and Investments, The George Washington University
  • M.B.A. in Finance and Investments, The George Washington University
  • B.S. in Mechanical Engineering, National Chao-Tung University

RESEARCH INSIGHTS ON HOUSING VALUE AND STADIUM CONSTRUCTION

Tu has researched the question whether construction of a sports stadium affects the residential housing values in its radius. He compared the "price differentials between housing units in close proximity to FedEx Field (home of the Washington Redskins) and comparable units away from it." His study found the properties near FedEx Field sold at a discount but that the "price differential was narrowed after the completion of the stadium." Overall, the research said, a stadium "improves housing values in the surrounding area."

Alan Gin, Ph.D.
University of San Diego

BIO

Alan Gin, associate professor of Economics at the University of San Diego, is widely seen as an expert in real estate-related economic cycles. He is an affiliated faculty member of the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate within USD’s School of Business Administration. Gin’s areas of expertise includes local public finance, urban transportation and the San Diego economy. He is best known for developing and publishing the University of San Diego’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators of San Diego County, a monthly report highlighting the outlook for the local economy. His insights on the local economy have led to over 1,000 interviews to local and national media sources. Gin’s interests also extend beyond the local economy, studying the business environment of Asia, China in particular. He was awarded USD’s Parents Association Award of Excellence and voted "Professor of the Year" by graduate business students. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
  • M.A. in Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
  • B.S. in Economics, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

INSIGHTS ON LOCAL HOUSING TRENDS

Gin recently weighed in on local housing starts in the San Diego market: "'We've got to have building return to the 15,000 to 20,000 level to really have an impact as far as prices and rents are concerned," Gin told the San Diego Union-Tribune in July 2015. 'Given the land and labor shortages, I just don't see that happening in the near future.'"

Mark Sunderman, Ph.D.
University of Memphis

BIO

Dr. Mark Sunderman of the University of Memphis is a leading expert focusing on property tax administration, valuation, real estate finance and related topics. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois and taught 22 years at the University of Wyoming before joining the faculty at the University of Memphis. Aside from publishing scholarly papers in the top real estate journals, he was responsible for development and teaching online real estate programs at the University of Wyoming and the University of Memphis. For his contribution, he has received numerous awards for online teaching, including the Hollon Family and eOT (Excellence in Online Teaching) awards. He has had over 100 presentations at professional meetings and a guest speaker at Indiana State University, DePaul University and West Virginia University. Outside from teaching, he has consulted for the National Park Service and the Ad Valorem Tax Division of the Wyoming Department of Revenue and Taxation.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Finance, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
  • M.S. in Finance, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
  • B.S. in Finance, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"It will depend on the overall national economy, including issues of government regulations, taxes, unemployment and continued uncontrolled government spending. I feel that the U.S. housing market will be solid and growing in 10 years only if we can regain control of our overall economy."

Ken Johnson, Ph.D.
Florida Atlantic University

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. from the University of Alabama, Dr. Ken Johnson has contributed substantially to our collective understanding of real estate. He has been published more than 40 times on real estate-related issues, including the U.S. housing market, real estate brokerage, and real estate investment. He regularly presents his research findings in both academic and public settings and has appeared in the media numerous times. Johnson has received eight different awards within the field, including several Red Pen Awards for his service and contribution to the Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management and Journal of Housing Research. Currently serving as an associate dean and professor in Finance, he is steering students to become tomorrow’s leaders in real estate. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at University of Alabama 
  • M.B.A. at Auburn University Montgomery
  • B.S. at Auburn University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The structure in the housing market will be significantly different in 10 years. Perhaps the greatest change will be the degree to which the Internet will have become involved in housing transactions. I see a time when comparable "sold" information will be readily available to all -- sellers, buyers, appraisers, and brokers. This common set of knowledge will lead to shorter marketing and search times which provide greater certainty over the value of a particular property."

Bennie Waller, Ph.D.
Longwood University

BIO

Co-author of two real estate textbooks along with being a licensed real estate broker and salesperson, Dr. Bennie Waller from Longwood University is immersed in every aspect of real estate, from education to sales. Publishing over 30 articles, Waller’s research and consulting is mainly targeted in the area of principal-agent and housing issues in residential real estate. He has been published in the top lending real estate journals and his research has been cited in the leading media outlets such as MSNBC, SmartMoney and The Wall Street Journal. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Management Information Systems, University of Mississippi
  • Ph.D. in Finance, University of Mississippi
  • M.B.A at University of North Carolina-Wilmington
  • B.S.B.A at Longwood University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Students with significant amount of debt will likely not qualify for a conventional mortgage due to the 28/36 mortgage lending guidelines. These are debt ratios suggesting that a borrower's mortgage loan cannot exceed 28 percent of their gross income and all debt cannot exceed 36 percent of gross income."

Anthony Sanders, Ph.D.
George Mason University

BIO

Dr. Anthony B. Sanders of George Mason University is a well-recognized and award-winning international real estate thinker. With his main research on investments, financial institutions and real estate finance, he has published over 100 articles that have been featured in the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis and more. He has presented in Australia, Chile, Italy, Germany, UK, Japan, China, Poland, Mexico, South Africa, and the U.S. Prior his academic career, he served as the director and head of Asset-backed and Mortgage-backed Securities Research at Deutsche Bank in New York City.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Urban and Housing Economics, University of Georgia
  • M.A. in Geography, University of Georgia 
  • B.A. in Geography, California State University, Chino

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"In regards to mortgage rates, if they do go up, it would make a bad situation even worse, unless the U.S. gets serious wage and household income growth going. But outside a few areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, most households are still struggling after the Great Recession."

James Spencer, Ph.D.
Clemson University

BIO

With more than 25 years of experience in planning, land development and development finance, James H. Spencer, chair of the Department of Planning, Development, and Preservation at Clemson University, has an excellent grasp of how the real estate industry functions and its importance for long term development objectives. His current research interests are international urbanization and planning issues, infrastructure and inequality. Prior his academic role at Clemson, he was an associate professor of Urban & Regional Planning and of Political Science at the University of Hawaii and served in staff positions at the Ford Foundation and other non-profit organizations.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Urban Planning, University of California, Los Angeles
  • M.A. in Environmental Management, Yale University
  • B.A. at Amherst College

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The long term future of the U.S. housing market will depend on how the demographic profile of the country evolves. That means 69 million retirees over the next 20 years, and many of them will remain with us longer than historically has been the case because of longer life expectancy."

Michael Seiler, Ph.D.
William & Mary

BIO

Dr. Michael J. Seiler of William & Mary is known as an international behavioral real estate researcher who has published over 140 research studies, written several books and is the editor of two top leading real estate journals. His work and insights have been featured in top media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, the LA Times, and The Washington Post. He was recently awarded with The William N. Kinnard Young Scholar Award and the Governor’s Technology Award. Seiler is the 2014-2015 president of the American Real Estate Society.

EDUCATION

  • D.B.A. in Finance/Real Estate, Cleveland State University 
  • M.B.A. in Finance, University of North Florida
  • B.S. in Finance, University of South Florida

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"I believe interest rates will increase over time which will dampen refinances, but home prices will improve which will encourage refinances as people will actually have enough equity in their homes to qualify for a refinance. Since I expect interest rates to increase over time, I sincerely hope homeowners focus on fixed-rate mortgages instead. In the current environment, fixed-rate mortgages are much preferred by the majority of homebuyers."

Nancy Wallace, Ph.D.
University of California, Berkeley Haas School of Business

BIO

With at least 20 published articles, Professor Nancy Wallace of University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business has dedicated her entire career in the real estate industry. Since joining the UCB in 1986 as an Assistant Professor, she has collaborated with other well recognized scholars to help educate future generations to come. She currently serves as the CO-Chair of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics and a Professor of Real Estate. After receiving her Ph.D. from the University of Michigan, she mainly focused her research on housing price indices, mortgage prepayment, option pricing models and stock option valuation. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Urban and Regional Planning, University of Michigan
  • License, Maitrisse, University of Paris VIII
  • B.A. in Political Science, University of Michigan

INSIGHT ON REAL ESTATE ASSET PRICING

“From the equilibrium conditions of the classical asset pricing literature, real estate asset prices are the present value of future rents and this relationship implies negative correlation between interest rates and asset prices. Empirically, however, the shape of the term structure of interest rates may also include information above expected future growth rates, and to the extent that these growth rates simultaneously affect rents, it is empirically possible to realize zero valued, or even slightly positive correlations, between interest rates and rents.”

Anand Bhattacharya, Ph.D.
Arizona State University

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. from Arizona State University, Dr. Anand Bhattacharya has done substantial research work focusing on investment management, mortgage-backed securities, and asset liability management. Prior to his academic career, Bhattacharya served as a managing director for Countrywide Capital Markets where he was responsible for the management of the fixed income research and analytics, servicing brokerage, trading systems development, and more. Prior to that, he was a managing director for Imperial Credit Industries and Prudential Securities. He is currently a professor in the department of Finance at the WP Carey School of Business at ASU. During his academic career, he has published over 65 articles and three books that focus on mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. Arizona State University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The shape of the housing market over the next decade will be increasingly affected by regional economic and demographic trends. Housing prices are likely to increase in areas experiencing high economic growth in line with income growth."

John Goering, Ph.D.
CUNY Baruch College School of Public Affairs

BIO

Dr. John Goering, professor at City University of New York Baruch College School of Public Affairs and author of dozens of articles and about eight books, is currently researching the effects of budget retrenchment upon housing programs. He served on the editorial boards of the Urban Affairs Review, the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, and other publications. Goering also serves as a consultant for New York City’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development and the staff of the White House Initiative on Race.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at Brown University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The U.S. housing market will focus more on sustainability as developing green or sustainable buildings is one critical component of the United States. The importance of sustainability to the world of real estate is due to the simple fact that buildings, residential, and commercial, consume 40% of the energy used in this country and are responsible for more than a third of our total carbon dioxide emissions."

Robert Van Order, Ph.D.
George Washington University

BIO

When it comes to issues such as housing finance, mortgage pricing, mortgage options and the consumer price index, Dr. Robert Van Order of George Washington University is a widely published expert. Van Order has also taught at UCLA, Purdue University, University of Southern California, University of Pennsylvania and University of Aberdeen in Scotland.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at John Hopkins University
  • M.A. at University of Essex
  • B.A. at Grinnell College

NOTABLES

Dwight Jaffee, Ph.D.
University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business

BIO

Publishing over 50 articles, Dr. Dwight Jaffee of the University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business has centered his research on energy efficiency, mortgage markets, and international affairs. Since his first day at work at UCB in 1991, he has contributed much to the campus by holding numerous positions for the Real Estate, Banking and Finance field. Off-campus, he is also an independent director at Genworth Financial Mutual Funds and board member at Global Earthquake Model.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • B.A. in Economics, Northwestern University 

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Americans have long been obsessed with owner-occupied housing. According to my research, home ownership has some positive effects upon the social outcomes for individuals and households. The primary impact of instruments that focus on lowering the cost or expanding the availability of mortgages will be larger mortgages, which makes those instruments ineffective and costly relative to direct subsidies for home ownership."

Mark A Lane, Ph.D.
Old Dominion

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. at the University of Missouri – Columbia, Dr. Mark A. Lane of Old Dominion University has done substantial work in the field, mainly specializing in behavioral, residential, and commercial real estate. Currently serving as an associate professor in the Finance department, he has published over 45 articles across numerous journals and books, including the Economic Journal, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and Journal of International Economics.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Business Administration, University of Missouri

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Since the average consumer is not as financially sophisticated as their lender, consumers will have a harder time understanding everything in the very large stack of documents that accompanies the typical mortgage. With the U.S. housing market receiving a constant flow of first-time buyers, this open borrowers up to the possibility of being taken advantage of in a transaction."

Milena Petrova, Ph.D.
Syracuse University

BIO

Serving as an assistant professor, Milena Petrova of Syracuse University has done exceptional research and publishing in the real estate industry. With a main focus on commercial real estate, REITs, and real estate operations, she has published in the top leading real estate journals, including Real Estate Economics and Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. She has earned numerous awards, including the International Business Finance Conference Best Paper Award, Oberwager Award, CoStar Best Paper Award and Gerald R. Brown Award. Aside from her academic career, she served as a consultant for Booz Allen Hamilton and finance analyst for Finnvera. She has also consulted for national and international real estate investment professionals.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Finance, University of Florida
  • M.Sc. in Finance, Hofstra University
  • M.Sc. in International Business, Helsinki School of Economics
  • IBLP in Industrial Management, Helsinki University of Technology
  • M.Sc. in International Business Relations, UNWE

INSIGHT ON REITS AND RETURNS

“From examination of property sell-offs by U.S. REITS (real estate investment trusts) from 1992-2002, abnormal shareholder returns around the announcement date are significantly positive. REITs are not taxed, and their real estate assets are not likely to be significantly undervalued by analysts because real estate is their primary asset class. Therefore, the positive returns in REIT sell-offs is consistent with the position that asset efficiencies are an important source of positive returns in real estate sell-offs by all types of firms.”

John Glascock, Ph.D.
University of Connecticut

BIO

Dr. John Glascock of University of Connecticut is a leader in the study of investments in real estate, valuation finance and housing policy. He has worked with many government groups and agencies including the states of Ohio and Louisiana, the Department of Justice, and throughout Asia. He is currently the director of the Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics; previously the Grosvenor Chair of Real Estate at Cambridge University and professor of Real Estate at George Washington University. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Finance, University of North Texas
  • M.Phil. at University of Cambridge 
  • M.A. in Economics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
  • M.B.A. at Stetson University. 
  • B.S.B.A. in Economics, Tennessee Technological University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Millennials will become first-time homebuyers in the near future. Today, college grads are opting to live in the city where job opportunities are better and they can work to save up for a down payment. When they are ready to purchase, they tend to buy larger properties and avoid fixer-uppers because they don’t want the hassle. They are also having fewer children than previous generations, and that offers a wealth effect as well."

Bernard Weinstein, Ph.D.
Southern Methodist University

BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. from Columbia University, Dr. Bernard Weinstein of the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University has contributed much to the field of real estate. Widely published, Weinstein has been featured in leading real estate journals, including the Journal of Land Economics, the Journal of Public Review and more. Aside from his academic career teaching business economics, serving as the Associate Director of the Maguire Energy Institute, and his previous longtime role as director of the Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas, he has served as a consultant to companies, numerous non-profit organizations, and government agencies. His clientele included AT&T, Texas Instruments, Devon Energy, the Cities of Dallas and San Antonio, and the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, Columbia University 
  • M.A. in Economics, Columbia University
  • A.B. in Public Administration, Dartmouth College

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"In view of tighter lending standards and larger down payments required by federal and state regulators, first-time homebuyers are unable to secure financing because of student loans. In fact, homeownership rates in the U.S. are lower today than they were 20 years ago, with the biggest decline among those under the age of 30."

Karen Gibler, Ph.D.
Georgia State University

BIO

Since receiving her Ph.D. from Georgia State University, Professor Karen Gibler of Georgia State University has focused majority of her research on the preferences and behaviors of seniors when choosing the ideal retirement housing in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Her articles have been featured in leading real estate journals including Real Estate Economics, Journal of Real Estate Research and Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. Aside from her academic career serving as the university’s associate professor, she is also the executive director of the International Real Estate Society.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at Georgia State University
  • M.B.A. at East Texas State University
  • M.S. at University of Tennessee
  • B.A. at Murray State University

INSIGHT ON HISTORIC DESIGNATION AND MARKET FORCES

Ever wonder if it’s worth it to buy a home in a historic district? Just outside? Gibler has insights. From a paper she co-authored in 2014 in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, it’s an interesting mixed bag: “We find that the more certain benefits from historic designation within the district are reflected in a price premium while the reduced regulation coupled with the cachet of being located near but not inside the district result in shorter marketing duration.”

Tony Ciochetti, Ph.D
University of Texas at San Antonio

BIO

After spending 12 years in a private sector of commercial real estate development and consulting before his academic career, Dr. Tony Ciochetti of University of Texas at San Antonio has created and instructed courses of real estate finance and development at numerous universities, including Cambridge University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, MIT, UTSA, University of Pennsylvania, Indiana University and the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill. Ciochetti was responsible for creating a new graduate program in real estate finance and development at Cambridge University. Outside of the university, he consults on behalf of investment banks, rating agencies, institutional clients and development companies and on the editorial and advisory boards of Real Estate Finance and CMBS World.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Real Estate and Urban Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Madison
  • M.S. in Real Estate and Urban Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Madison
  • B.A. in Finance, University of Oregon

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Basic supply and demand issues will drive the housing markets going forward. Currently, demand has been recovering in the housing sector, which has helped prices recover from the lows of 2008 to 2010. In other markets where demand remains soft, prices are likely to recover at a slower rate."

Raymond Hill, Ph.D.
Emory University

BIO

Specializing in project finance, macroeconomic and monetary policy, and energy economics and finance, Dr. Raymond Hill of Emory University joined the Goizueta Business School in 2003 to teach managerial economics and finance. Prior to joining Emory, he worked at Lehman Brothers as an investment banker. His term at Lehman Brothers included a seven-year stay in Hong Kong as the managing director of the investment banking business in Asia outside of Japan. After he returned to the USA, he worked at Mirant Corporation and its predecessor, a subsidiary of Southern Company serving as the company’s chief financial officer and CEO for 18 months at one of the largest independent power companies in Asia.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • B.A. in Economics, Princeton University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Based on the spread on the Treasury bonds, the financial markets are betting on an inflation rate increasing by 2 percent in the near future. There is a lively and open debate at the monthly Federal Open Market Committee meetings with vocal Fed officials on both sides of the debate about when the Fed should take its off off the accelerator and start putting it on the brakes by tapering quantitative easing."

Matthew Cypher, Ph.D.
Georgetown University

BIO

After spending more than nine years in the real estate industry, Matthew L. Cypher of Georgetown supports the university as a professor of the practice and director of the real estate initiative, transforming students into potential leaders through the advancement of a real estate curriculum. His research articles have been published in top real estate journals including the Journal of Real Estate Research, Journal of Property Research and more. Prior working at Georgetown University, he worked at Invesco’s real estate acquisitions group where he was responsible of the Underwriting Group in which acquired $10.2 billion worth of institutional real estate during leadership.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at Texas A&M University
  • M.S. at Texas A&M University
  • B.S. at Pennsylvania State University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The pace of innovation in the global economy is accelerating at a blinding rate, creating significant disruptions in business and society. These disruptive forces take a variety of forms, but technology, energy, and the intersection of the two are leaders in this space and are influencing all aspects of life. The real estate industry has already experienced significant change due to these disruptive forces, but the future is bright with innovations that could materially influence how real estate is used—or create new investment opportunities that previously did not exist or were less robust."

Robert Campbell, Ph.D.
Hofstra University

BIO

Dr. Robert Campbell of Hofstra University has educated and inspired people of all cultures around the world, presenting research at international conferences in Europe, Asia and Latin America as an associate professor of finance, but also lecturing at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Szechuan, China, and the at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden. Outside of academia, he has served as a consultant to the Long Island Board of Realtors, the Office Attorney General of New York and part of seven different real estate associations. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at University of Connecticut 
  • M.B.A. at University of Pennsylvania 
  • B.A. at Yale University

INSIGHTS ON BECOMING A LANDLORD

Robert Campbell is often quoted in local and national media. He weighed in on becoming a landlord for Newsday, explaining that it's not for every homeowner. "It can affect you financially and emotionally -- and it's hard to plan for every factor that may come into play with a bad tenant who could potentially destroy your home and cease paying rent," he told the paper. "The emotional, financial and legal risks of renting out are immense, incalculable and impossible to predict or control."

Arthur Segel, Ph.D.
Harvard University

BIO

Voted as one of the top 20 most influential people in the real estate in the world by Private Equity Real Estate Magazine, the work of Arthur Segel of Harvard University involves the entire range of real estate issues, from emerging frontier markets, environmental and sustainability issues to distress investing. Segel, named “Man of the Year” by the 21st Century Fund, has taught the Real Property Asset Management course since 1996.

EDUCATION

  • M.B.A. at Stanford University
  • B.A. at Harvard University

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"The U.S. housing market will focus on the three big trends in the industry: Securitization, globalization, and environmentalism. Everyone is intrigued with the sudden globalization of our business. Real estate is a people business, and whether developers can compete in more than a few markets at a time is unclear. The speed of innovation, especially in the life sciences areas such as stem cell research, requires buildings that must be flexible and readily converted to new and different uses."

Shaun Bond, Ph.D.
University of Cincinnati

BIO

When it comes to discussions about real estate finance and investment, Dr. Shaun A. Bond from the University of Cincinnati is a person to debate and exchange ideas with. Widely published, Bond’s work includes insight for commercial real estate, private real estate market, volatility and more. Bond, a professor of finance and real estate at UC’s nationally-ranked Carl H. Lindner College of Business, also serves as director of the UC Real Estate program. He’s known for pushing student to develop their skills in real estate finance, finance and investments. In addition to his academic resume, Bond has collaborated with government and international groups, including the European Public Real Estate Association, HM Treasury and more.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of Cambridge
  • M.Phil. in Economics, University of Cambridge
  • B.A. in Economics, University of Queensland

What will the U.S. housing market look like in the next 10 years?

"Fund managers will use Alpha, a powerful concept in investment and fund management in the direct U.S. real estate housing market, to consistently maintain their performance. It relates to the delivery of superior risk-adjusted returns, either from an active fund manager or from an asset class. Investors choose fund managers on the basis of their potential to deliver Alpha from the U.S. housing market, and fund managers are often rewarded on this basis."

Jon Wiley, Ph.D.
Georgia State University

BIO

When it comes to buzzwords like “sustainable real estate” and hot-button issues such as the effect of new developments on surrounding homeowners, Jon Wiley of Georgia State University is a noted expert. Widely published, Wiley’s work runs the entire range of real estate concerns, from residential to commercial and governmental. He also gives back to the academic world as a supervisor in the school’s real estate Ph.D. program, helping graduate students develop and hone their dissertations on such topics as attention theory and market fundamentals. He recently earned the Faculty Recognition Award for Research at GSU’s J. Mack Robinson College of Business, 2014. 

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. at University of Alabama 
  • B.B.A. at University of Georgia

INSIGHT ON BUYER INCENTIVES

"The impact of incentives on marketing duration are not considered for residential real estate. There are many incentives offered directly by sellers to potential homebuyers. They are not capitalized into the selling price during the softened market conditions. Alternatively, incentives are found to have a significant reduction in marketing time, however is found to be true only for closing costs and not for other incentive classifications. The benefit of reduced expected market time from offering incentives is quickly diminished when the seller initially overprices the listing by a large amount."

Alexei Tchistyi, Ph.D.
University of Illnois

BIO

Optimal mortgage lending and the mortgage market meltdown are two topics in which Alexei Tchistyi of University of Illinois is expert. Since receiving his Ph.D. at Stanford University, his work extends also to corporate finance and dynamic contracting. An associate professor of finance and director of real estate research, he mentors students to grasp the fundamentals of real estate and become future influencers of the industry. He received the Barbara and Gerson Baker Faculty Fellow at the Haas School of Business at the University of California Berkeley, 2012-2013.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. in Business Administration, Stanford University
  • M.A. in Economics, New Economic School
  • M.S. in Applied Mathematics and Physics, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology
  • B.S. in Applied Mathematics and Physics, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology

RESEARCH INSIGHTS ON 'OPTIMAL MORTGAGE DESIGN'

"The default rates and interest rate payment on mortgage correlate positively with the market interest rate. Gains from using the optimal contract relative to simpler mortgages are the biggest for those who face more income variability, buy pricey houses given their income level, or make little or no down payment."

O. Nicholas Ordway, Ph.D.
University of Hawaii
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BIO

Since receiving his Ph.D. from Georgia State University in 1978, O. Nicholas Ordway of University of Hawaii at Manoa has received more than 10 real estate awards from various universities. A finance professor, he instructs students on the principles of real estate and environmental law and real estate finance and investment. Ordway has received numerous honors, including from the Real Estate Educators Association, American Society of Real Estate Counselors, and the State of Hawaii Real Estate Commission. During his career, he has written two books: "The Absolute Beginner’s Guide to Buying a House" in 2002 and "Income Property Appraisal and Analysis" in Russian in 1995.
EDUCATION

  •     Ph.D. at Georgia State University
  •     M.B.A. at Georgia State University
  •     J.D. at University of Georgia
  •     B.A. at Emory University

INSIGHTS ON REAL ESTATE VALUATION

"With a systems theory model of real estate valuation of developments, there is a network connectivity between a specific site-based project and the external environment. In recent years, the appraisal literature has added consideration of valuation of 'going concern' value incorporating tangible and intangible elements that contribute to the land and improvements."