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NFL playoff teams: Success at home and on the field

 
 

San francisco

It’s that time again--the start of a new year, snow storms, colder temperatures and the NFL playoffs. To put the U.S. real estate market in sporting terms, the past few years have been “rebuilding” years. We’ve come off the bottom and continue to add pieces and supports to help us get back to our winning ways.

This year’s playoff teams are from a very diverse group of housing markets. The playoff teams reside on the East Coast, the West Coast, the South and the Midwest. They come from expensive markets and very affordable markets. But is there any relation between home prices, mortgage rates, homeownership rates and success in the NFL?

Not really, but we thought it would be fun to examine the characteristics of the housing markets of this year’s NFL playoff teams.

  • Median-home price: $286,900
  • Mortgage rate: 4.64 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 60.4 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 3.2 percent
  • Average ticket price (for 2013 season): $236.00
  • Stadium name: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012 season
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 1998
  • UPDATE: Current odds (as of 1/12/14): 9 to 5

With home prices rising and foreclosure rates low in the Mile High City, Denver is not only a great city to be a homeowner, but with Peyton Manning under center, Denver is also a great place to be a football fan.

  • Median-home price: $393,700
  • Mortgage rate: 4.57 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 66.6 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 3 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $251.00
  • Stadium name: Gillette Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2011
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/12/14): 5 to 1

With quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick at the helm, the New England Patriots are never too far from success. Like the real estate market in Boston in recent years, the Patriots are a model of class and consistency.

  • Median-home price: $142,100
  • Mortgage rate: 4.66 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 64 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 4.9 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $79.00
  • Stadium name: Paul Brown Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 1988
  • Current Super Bowl odds: 18 to 1

Thanks to home prices, the real estate market is much more affordable in Cincinnati compared with Boston or Denver. Even ticket prices to Bengals games are cheaper. But can the “affordable” Bengals outshine their pricier opponents this postseason? We will see.

  • Median-home price: $143,500
  • Mortgage rate: 4.67 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 67.4 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 4.9 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $131.00
  • Stadium name: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2009
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/6/14): 20 to 1

Replacing a legend like Peyton Manning is hard to do, but young quarterback Andrew Luck has proven he’s just the man for the job. The Colts on-field success has barely skipped a beat, and their housing market, with steady price gains this year, hasn’t either.

  • Median-home price: $162,300
  • Mortgage rate: 4.56 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 65 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 3.1 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $91.00
  • Stadium name: Arrowhead Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2010
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 1969
  • Current Super Bowl odds: 35 to 1

Going from two wins and 14 losses last season to 11 wins and five losses this season was no easy feat for the Chiefs. Neither is a nearly $30,000 increase in home prices since the beginning of 2013. With affordable home and ticket prices, residents of Kansas City are already winners.  

  • Median-home price: $485,000
  • Mortgage rate: 4.66 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 53.9 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 2.4 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $123.00
  • Stadium name: Qualcomm Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2009
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 1994
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/6/14): 15 to 1

It’s a long shot that the Chargers will make it all the way to the Super Bowl, just like it’s a long shot that you could afford a home in this Southern California metro. With home prices up more than $70,000 since the beginning of 2013, we wonder if the Lombardi Trophy is as far out of reach for the Chargers as a median-priced home is for the average American.

  • Median-home price: $354,700
  • Mortgage rate: 4.71 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 59.5 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 3.5 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $236.00
  • Stadium name: CenturyLink Field
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2005
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/12/14): 8 to 5

CenturyLink Field in Seattle is about the toughest place to play in the NFL. Surviving in Seattle’s housing market isn’t exactly easy either. High home prices and mortgage rates, not to mention expensive ticket prices to Seahawks games, make winning in the Emerald City, both on and off the field, pretty difficult.

  • Median-home price: $183,800
  • Mortgage rate: 4.54 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 59.1 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 2.9 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $115.00
  • Stadium name: Bank of America Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2008
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2003
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/6/14): 10 to 1

Talk about exciting. The Carolina Panthers have a dynamic, young quarterback and a stout defense that, with a record of 12 and four, took the league by surprise this year. Charlotte homebuyers and homeowners might also be surprised that their housing market has the lowest mortgage rates on our list and one of the lowest foreclosure rates as well.

  • Median-home price: $231,600
  • Mortgage rate: 4.56 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 69.3 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 5.7 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $155.00
  • Stadium name: Lincoln Financial Field
  • Last time in playoffs: 2010
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2004
  • Current Super Bowl odds: 20 to 1

Between 2000 and 2010, the Philadelphia Eagles were a model of consistency, making the playoffs eight times. But this year, the Eagles have a new coach and a young team. The birds are hoping this year’s playoff run is as consistent as their city’s home prices over the last two years.

  • Median-home price: $211,800
  • Mortgage rate: 4.60 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 57.9 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 4.4 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $193.00
  • Stadium name: Lambeau Field
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
  • Current Super Bowl odds: 22 to 1

With quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning to the team just in time to clinch a playoff berth, the Packers enter the playoffs hot and are a serious NFC contender. Home prices in Milwaukee are on a similar hot streak, with the Wisconsin Realtors Association reporting yet another monthly increase in home prices during the month of November.

  • Median-home price: $705,000
  • Mortgage rate: 4.68 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 55.1 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 2.3 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $201.00
  • Stadium name: Candlestick Park
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2012
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/12/14): 3 to 1

Even though the 49ers are saying goodbye to Candlestick Park, their home for the last 42 years, not too many homeowners in San Francisco have had to say goodbye to their homes due to foreclosure. Perhaps that’s because home prices are so high in San Francisco that only the highest-quality borrowers become homeowners in the first place.

  • Median-home price: $162,500
  • Mortgage rate: 4.70 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 62.3 percent
  • Foreclosure rate: 4.7 percent
  • Average ticket cost: $220.00
  • Stadium name: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
  • Last time in playoffs: 2011
  • Last time in Super Bowl: 2009
  • UPDATE: Current Super Bowl odds (as of 1/6/14): 15 to 1

The Saints are traveling to Philadelphia this weekend to face the Eagles. While the weather is warmer in the Crescent City, New Orleans homebuyers and homeowners may wish they were traveling to Philadelphia as well. Mortgage rates are lower, home prices are higher, more residents own homes, and ticket prices are cheaper in the City of Brotherly Love. But would Saints fans trade all of that for a playoff win? I bet they might.

Median-home price: www.Realtor.org  (3Q13)

Mortgage rate: www.HSH.com   (3Q13)

Homeownership rate: http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html  (3Q13)

Foreclosure rate:  http://www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html

Average ticket cost (2013 season):  http://seatgeek.com

Playoff data: http://www.pro-football-reference.com

Super Bowl odds: http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_futures_odds.shtml

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Wild Card Round - Winning Team Colored
 
Philadelphia Matchup New Orleans   Green Bay Matchup San Francisco  
$ 231,600 Median Home Price 162,500   $ 211,800 Median Home Price $ 705,000  
4.56 Mortgage Rate 4.70   4.60 Mortgage Rate 4.68  
69.3 Homeownership Rate 62.3   57.9 Homeownership Rate 55.1  
5.70 Foreclosure Rate 4.70   4.4 Foreclosure Rate 2.3  
               
Cincinnati Matchup San Diego   Indianapolis Matchup Kansas City  
$ 142,100 Median Home Price 485,000   $ 143,500 Median Home Price $ 162,300  
4.66 Mortgage Rate 4.66   4.67 Mortgage Rate 4.56  
64 Homeownership Rate 53.9   67.4 Homeownership Rate 65  
4.9 Foreclosure Rate 2.4   4.9 Foreclosure Rate 3.1  
After the Wild Card Round, teams in cities with the higher mortgage rate went 4-0.
*Cincinnati and San Diego have the same mortgage rate
Divisional Round
 
New Orleans Matchup Seattle   San Francisco Matchup Carolina  
4.70 Mortgage Rate 4.71   4.68 Mortgage Rate 4.54  
 
San Diego Matchup Denver   Indianapolis Matchup New England  
4.66 Mortgage Rate 4.64    4.67 Mortgage Rate 4.57  

New Orleans won’t be able to handle the Seattle weather and their fans. San Diego will defeat Denver for a second time. San Francisco will sneak by Carolina's tough defense. Indianapolis takes the last name of their quarterback and will run with it.

Championship Round - based on projections
 
San Francisco Matchup Seattle   San Diego Matchup Indianapolis  
4.68 Mortgage Rate 4.71   4.66 Mortgage Rate 4.67  
 Seattle is just too good and their fans are just too loud. Indianapolis's "Luck" won't run out just yet.
Super Bowl - based on projections
 
Indianapolis Matchup Seattle          
4.67 Mortgage Rate 4.71          
 Favorites since the start of the year, the Seattle Seahawks will be Super Bowl champions.