Today's Mortgage Rates - 04/16/2024

Mortgage Rates: Going Up

Mortgage rates rose by only a little this week, but more increases seem on tap.

Freddie Mac reported today that the average offered interest rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by six basis points (0.06%), rising to 6.88% very near the top of a two-month range.

Average offered rates for fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages also pressed higher this week, rising by 10 basis points (0.10%) to 6.16%, erasing all of the two small declines from the last couple of weeks.

Relative to a long-term fixed-rate mortgage, the offered rate for the most popular ARM was somewhat more attractive this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average offered rate for first five years of a 5/1 hybrid ARM increased by only four basis points (0.04%) in their latest survey week, lifting the average rate to 6.41%. With the spring housing season getting into full swing and long-term mortgage rates elevated, a homebuyer might be more inclined to consider an ARM to save some money over the first few years of ownership while waiting for a chance to refinance to a more permanent loan at a lower rate.

If you're interested learning the advantages (and drawbacks) of ARMs, you should read HSH's comprehensive Guide to Adjustable Rate Mortgages.

Of late, investors have become increasingly concerned that the downtrend in inflation has stalled and may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates as soon as has been expected. Over the last two weeks, the yields which underpin mortgage rates have increased considerably, and mortgage rates will react to this more strongly before long.

While yet to be reflected in the average rates above, the impetus for this week's increase in yields came from another inflation report that showed a larger increase than was expected. The Consumer Price Index for March posted a 0.4% increase in the overall number, lifting inflation up from an annual 3.1% rate in February to 3.5% for March. So-called "core" CPI inflation (which removes highly volatile energy and food costs from its calculation) also came in at 0.4% for March, the third such reading in a row. Even including March's bump, core CPI held at an annual rate of 3.8% for a second consecutive month, but elevated monthly values will make if hard for the annual rate to decline.

Of more immediate concern to investors is whether or not such increases delay or even cancel expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates in June. Just a week ago, futures markets placed up to an 80% probability that this was the case; post-CPI report, the odds have fallen to just a 20% chance of a June cut in rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury and other influences on mortgage rates are all back at levels last seen in November (and before that, September). At those times, 30-year mortgage rates were will above the 7% mark, and mortgage rates seem likely to revisit those levels (or at least approach them) in the coming days.

Each week in HSH's MarketTrends newsletter, we track and discuss economic conditions that affect mortgage rates and their impact on housing markets and consumers. Read the most recent edition of MarketTrends or subscribe for email delivery.