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Home price recovery index: Which metros have improved the most, least?

Have home prices in your area fully recovered from the declines suffered during the Great Recession, or are they still struggling to make it back to the peaks they reached before the crisis?

HSH.com’s "Home price recovery index" uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index as a basis to determine which housing markets have fully recovered (or more) and which still lag behind the housing recovery. The time period represented runs from the first quarter of 1991 and runs through the third quarter of 2016.

New this quarter:

The Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY metro area muscled its way into the top 10 most recovered list this time around, bumping the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA metro out of the "most recovered" group. These two metros have swapped positions in each of the last three quarters.

Three more metro areas joined the "fully recovered" group: The Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine (CA), Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley (CA) and the Washington DC-Arlington-Alexandria (DC-VA-MD-WV) MSADs all crossed into new high territory during the period.

Currently, 51 of the 100 metros are at new highs.

There are four markets in our "nearly recovered" group: The Dayton OH, Richmond VA, Boise City ID and Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI metropolitan areas are all about 1 percent or less below previous boom-period highs. If the current pattern for home prices persists, we'd expect to see them hit new highs in the next quarter or so.

10 metro areas that have recovered the most

Metro NamePeak ValueBottom ValueCurrent ValueAmount Above Peak
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 276.92 256.76 438.02 58.18%
Austin-Round Rock, TX 270.36 260.43 415.07 53.52%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD) 172.63 165.48 253.07 46.60%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 201.02 194.48 290.46 44.49%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (MSAD) 169.14 161.34 231.40 36.81%
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA (MSAD) 277.29 215.58 379.16 36.74%
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 225.23 197.96 297.19 31.95%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 216.41 199.51 282.15 30.38%
Pittsburgh, PA 180.81 176.84 230.02 27.22%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY 147.33 146.43 186.79 26.78%

10 metro areas that have recovered the least

It is important to note that many markets -- even the 10 that still remain the furthest from their boom-year price peaks -- have seen significant price recoveries since hitting their bottom values. However, home prices in areas like Las Vegas may have been inflated to such a degree that even when they return to a “normal” value they may still be well below their previous price peak.

For example, despite an 88 percent rise from the metro's lowest value (a figure reached in the fourth quarter of 2011), there is still a gap of over 42 percent yet to go in the Las Vegas metro. There are plenty of other markets with a similar tale to tell, and places where the home price recovery is happening at a much slower pace, too.  

New this quarter: The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL metro climbed out of the bottom 10, replaced by the New Haven-Milford CT metropolitan area, where prices tumbled back a bit in the third quarter, widening the recovery gap to 26.61 percent. The shortfall was "only" 22.30 percent in the second quarter, not quite large enough to make the list.

Other than that, there were no other changes in the from the second quarter in the metro areas that make up the "least"  group, but several switched positions during the quarter, with Bakersfield, CA bumping Las Vegas off the top of the list.

Metro NamePeak ValueBottom ValueCurrent Value% Needed to Regain Peak
Bakersfield, CA 253.09 118.10 175.84 43.93%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 268.75 100.56 189.12 42.11%
Stockton-Lodi, CA 273.51 107.51 196.65 39.08%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 317.86 132.55 235.29 35.09%
Fresno, CA 273.35 137.88 203.34 34.43%
Tucson, AZ 309.87 175.86 240.71 28.73%
New Haven-Milford, CT 202.71 154.55 160.11 26.61%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 274.28 127.67 216.78 26.52%
Elgin, IL (MSAD) 202.78 129.74 161.04 25.92%
Camden, NJ (MSAD) 224.75 165.95 182.73 23.00%

How has the value of YOUR home changed?

HSH.com has developed a tool that allows you to see how the price change in your market has affected the value of your home. With our “Home Value Estimator,” you select your market and the time frame in which you have owned your home to estimate how the changes in your market have impacted your home’s value.

Remaining metro areas

Here's a look at the remaining 80 metro areas from the FHFA's HPI list.

Metro NamePeak ValueBottom ValueCurrent Value% Needed to Regain PeakAmount Above Peak
Akron, OH 176.96 141.61 173.63 1.92% n/a
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 184.61 168.85 187.19 n/a 1.40%
Albuquerque, NM 239.15 189.3 218.46 9.47% n/a
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 205.73 152.79 171.78 19.76% n/a
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA (MSAD) 293.23 293.23 293.23 n/a 1.73%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 199.77 140.68 224.12 n/a 12.19%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 270.59 207.95 239.04 13.20% n/a
Baton Rouge, LA 229.13 213.21 249.64 n/a 8.95%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL 213.63 177 228.84 n/a 7.12%
Boise City, ID 298.04 164.58 295.21 0.96% n/a
Boston, MA (MSAD) 271.19 223.63 285.31 n/a 5.21%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 242 182.95 200.08 20.95% n/a
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA (MSAD) 257.84 214.46 278.37 n/a 7.96%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 286.81 202.5 317.52 n/a 10.71%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 196.78 160.6 227.9 n/a 15.81%
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (MSAD) 238.77 161.26 203.47 17.35% n/a
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 180.51 150.24 188.43 n/a 4.39%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 174.73 137.18 164.08 6.49% n/a
Colorado Springs, CO 260.79 219.38 293.63 n/a 12.59%
Columbia, SC 187.29 160.58 192.52 n/a 2.79%
Columbus, OH 181.16 161.31 215.09 n/a 18.73%
Dayton, OH 156.4 125.87 155.82 0.37% n/a
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD) 208.72 114.64 182.14 14.59% n/a
El Paso, TX 195.11 169.33 185.7 5.07% n/a
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL (MSAD) 353.23 176.64 296.64 19.08% n/a
Gary, IN (MSAD) 185.97 158.03 192.77 n/a 3.66%
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 186.14 141.05 211.33 n/a 13.53%
Greensboro-High Point, NC 168.63 146.31 170.4 n/a 1.05%
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 194.4 174.97 229.14 n/a 17.87%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 173.75 146.09 153.01 13.55% n/a
Honolulu ('Urban Honolulu'), HI 196.93 175.13 238.21 n/a 20.96%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 161.89 146.88 191.76 n/a 18.45%
Jacksonville, FL 300.9 179.68 261.13 15.23% n/a
Kansas City, MO-KS 201.12 165.06 222.9 n/a 10.83%
Knoxville, TN 206.43 178.56 215.2 n/a 4.25%
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI (MSAD) 208.82 140.43 171.99 21.41% n/a
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 191.17 182.92 203.86 n/a 6.64%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD) 277.85 166.66 261.53 6.24% n/a
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 200.62 188.01 233.6 n/a 16.44%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 176.71 144.58 180.47 n/a 2.13%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD) 420.59 215.38 356.86 17.86% n/a
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 236.83 191.35 233.93 1.24% n/a
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 265.47 190.49 259.17 2.43% n/a
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA (MSAD) 213.77 185.65 207.08 3.23% n/a
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD) 302.38 240.47 276.36 9.42% n/a
New Orleans-Metairie, LA 264.53 223.44 285.48 n/a 7.92%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (MSAD) 273.27 220.25 249.51 9.52% n/a
Newark, NJ-PA (MSAD) 268.36 208.08 240.23 11.71% n/a
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 344.58 161.74 284.51 21.11% n/a
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA (MSAD) 312.19 312.19 312.19 n/a 1.14%
Oklahoma City, OK 201.67 193.07 243.95 n/a 20.96%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 201.17 181.2 228.91 n/a 13.79%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 289 142.07 239.11 20.86% n/a
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 284.16 172.37 256.09 10.96% n/a
Philadelphia, PA (MSAD) 239.48 257.02 257.02 n/a 7.32%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 342.62 163.03 298.81 14.66% n/a
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 339.17 251.62 403.3 n/a 18.91%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 243.67 178.74 212.88 14.46% n/a
Raleigh, NC 200.99 179.21 235.27 n/a 17.06%
Richmond, VA 240.98 184.5 239.01 0.82% n/a
Rochester, NY 140.28 135.61 153.7 n/a 9.57%
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA 257.85 125.7 214.66 20.12% n/a
Salt Lake City, UT 355.29 263.02 388.88 n/a 9.45%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 299.01 189.74 289.6 3.25% n/a
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 289.75 198.75 354.22 n/a 22.25%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD) 299.69 207.04 342.8 n/a 14.38%
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD (MSAD) 280.86 206.26 252.43 11.26% n/a
St. Louis, MO-IL 212.48 175.6 215.85 n/a 1.59%
Syracuse, NY 150.41 141.53 155.86 n/a 3.62%
Tacoma-Lakewood, WA (MSAD) 296.51 182.29 281.52 5.32% n/a
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 313.97 171.69 275.81 13.84% n/a
Tulsa, OK 191.68 171.9 214.4 n/a 11.85%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 275.09 206.78 232.86 18.14% n/a
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (MSAD) 207.26 124.59 201.98 2.61% n/a
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSAD) 284.59 206.65 284.85 n/a 0.09%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL (MSAD) 322.16 154.24 285.42 12.87% n/a
Wichita, KS 184.08 165.8 195.41 n/a 6.15%
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ (MSAD) 217.25 165.24 186.88 16.25% n/a
Winston-Salem, NC 178.06 178.06 178.06 n/a 1.88%
Worcester, MA-CT 231.88 169.56 207.49 11.75% n/a

More about the HPI

The Home Price Index is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It has been published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and precursor agencies since the fourth quarter of 1995.

For each market, the index uses 1990 home prices as a basis. Those dollars are "normalized" to a value of 100 for each market; that is, regardless of the actual dollar cost, the index value for a given market becomes 100. For example, a home price in Allentown, PA in 1990 might have been $65,000; this becomes a base value for Allentown of 100, and changes since then are presented as percentage changes from that initial 100 value.

The HPI is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The HPI does not include property transactions backed by FHA, VA, USDA or non-conforming (i.e. jumbo) mortgages.

The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinances on the same properties.

The HPI shows the relative change in prices in a metropolitan area from quarter to quarter or period to period. HSH.com has pulled out information from each area to show the amount of change from 1990 to the pre-housing-crisis peak, the low achieved during or after the peak, and how much improvement has taken place since that near-term bottom.

The FHFA uses the revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in February 2013. If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions.

For more details on the HPI and how it is put together, see http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Housing-Price-Index-Frequently-Asked-Questions.aspx

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