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Home price recovery index: Which metros have improved the most, least?

Have home prices in your area fully recovered from the declines suffered during the Great Recession, or are they still struggling to make it back to the peaks they reached before the crisis?

HSH.com’s "Home price recovery index" uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index as a basis to determine which housing markets have fully recovered (or more) and which still lag behind the housing recovery. The time period represented runs from the first quarter of 1991 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2016.

New this quarter:  Aside from the San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA (MSAD) and Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (MSAD) swapping positions, there were no changes in the top 10 "most recovered" group in the fourth quarter of 2016, but all moved further above previous "boom time" peaks for home prices.

The group of ten markets that is still the furthest distance from full price recovery welcomed a new member in the fourth quarter, as other metros improved more than did the New Haven-Milford, CT metro area. The improvement in price in the fourth quarter of 2016 was sufficient enough in the Elgin, IL metro to see it power out of the bottom 10, but even then the metro still has more than 22 percent to go to reach its previous peak.

Three more metro areas joined the "fully recovered" group: Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis (WI), Dayton (OH) and Boise City (ID) metro areas have all now surpassed their previous highs.

Currently, 54 of the 100 metros are at new highs.

There are four markets in our "nearly recovered" group: Our "nearly recovered" group -- those with current values only about one percent below previous highs -- has four members who are likely to be next in line to hit "fully recovered" in the next quarter or so. These are the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington (MN-WI), Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County (PA), Richmond (VA) and Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills (MI) metropolitan areas.

10 metro areas that have recovered the most

Metro NamePeak ValueBottom ValueCurrent ValueAmount Above Peak
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 276.64 256.37 443.54 60.33%
Austin-Round Rock, TX 270.25 260.33 425.00 57.26%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD) 172.44 165.37 259.58 50.53%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 200.99 194.48 293.66 46.11%
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA (MSAD) 277.21 214.80 392.08 41.44%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (MSAD) 169.21 161.31 236.49 39.76%
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 225.04 197.77 301.32 33.90%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 216.32 199.32 282.74 30.70%
Pittsburgh, PA 180.73 176.31 232.28 28.52%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY 147.20 146.34 188.66 28.17%

10 metro areas that have recovered the least

It is important to note that many markets -- even the 10 that still remain the furthest from their boom-year price peaks -- have seen significant price recoveries since hitting their bottom values. However, home prices in areas like Las Vegas may have been inflated to such a degree that even when they return to a “normal” value they may still be well below their previous price peak.

For example, despite an 89 percent rise from the metro's lowest value (a figure reached in the fourth quarter of 2011), there is still a gap of over 40 percent yet to go in the Las Vegas metro. There are plenty of other markets with a similar tale to tell, and places where the home price recovery is happening at a much slower pace, too.  

New this quarter: The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL metro climbed out of the bottom 10, replaced by the New Haven-Milford CT metropolitan area, where prices tumbled back a bit in the third quarter, widening the recovery gap to 26.61 percent. The shortfall was "only" 22.30 percent in the second quarter, not quite large enough to make the list.

Other than that, there were no other changes in the from the second quarter in the metro areas that make up the "least"  group, but several switched positions during the quarter, with Bakersfield, CA bumping Las Vegas off the top of the list.

Metro NamePeak ValueBottom ValueCurrent Value% Needed to Regain Peak
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 268.73 100.78 190.89 40.78%
Bakersfield, CA 253.50 118.33 180.17 40.70%
Stockton-Lodi, CA 273.36 107.40 199.55 36.99%
Fresno, CA 273.17 138.03 206.31 32.41%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 317.60 131.89 240.34 32.15%
Tucson, AZ 309.81 175.82 244.82 26.55%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 274.13 127.64 219.60 24.83%
New Haven-Milford, CT 202.64 153.76 163.32 24.08%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 241.94 182.99 196.87 22.89%
Camden, NJ (MSAD) 224.69 165.75 182.94 22.82%

How has the value of YOUR home changed?

HSH.com has developed a tool that allows you to see how the price change in your market has affected the value of your home. With our “Home Value Estimator,” you select your market and the time frame in which you have owned your home to estimate how the changes in your market have impacted your home’s value.

Neither most nor least: 80 more metro areas

Here's a look at the remaining 80 metro areas from the FHFA's HPI list.

Metro NamePeak ValueBottom ValueCurrent Value% Needed to Regain PeakAmount Above Peak
Akron, OH 177.08 142.03 173.8 1.89% n/a
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 184.57 169 190.96 n/a 3.46%
Albuquerque, NM 239.19 189.05 221.03 8.22% n/a
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 205.7 152.9 169.54 21.33% n/a
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA (MSAD) 288.35 197.54 291.27 n/a 1.01%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 199.73 140.52 226.93 n/a 13.62%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 270.21 207.52 244.57 10.48% n/a
Baton Rouge, LA 229.19 213.49 261.43 n/a 14.07%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL 213.61 176.97 230.24 n/a 7.79%
Boise City, ID 297.79 164.59 306.68 n/a 2.99%
Boston, MA (MSAD) 270.9 223.22 288.95 n/a 6.66%
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA (MSAD) 257.82 214 285.47 n/a 10.72%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 287.02 202.49 333.6 n/a 16.23%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 196.66 160.51 230.73 n/a 17.32%
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (MSAD) 238.81 160.94 208.25 14.67% n/a
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 180.34 150.07 192.08 n/a 6.51%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 174.64 136.93 170.86 2.21% n/a
Colorado Springs, CO 260.38 218.32 307.49 n/a 18.09%
Columbia, SC 187.79 158.92 195.87 n/a 4.30%
Columbus, OH 181.05 160.79 219.4 n/a 21.18%
Dayton, OH 156.37 125.86 157.29 n/a 0.59%
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD) 208.55 114.65 186.63 11.75% n/a
El Paso, TX 195.44 169.47 188.51 3.68% n/a
Elgin, IL (MSAD) 202.59 129.84 165.77 22.21% n/a
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL (MSAD) 353.2 177.12 302.34 16.82% n/a
Gary, IN (MSAD) 186.88 157.93 193.74 n/a 3.67%
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 186.04 141.05 215.04 n/a 15.59%
Greensboro-High Point, NC 168.27 146.48 176.29 n/a 4.77%
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 194.28 174.77 236.96 n/a 21.97%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 173.71 145.62 152.27 14.08% n/a
Honolulu ('Urban Honolulu'), HI 196.62 174.97 241.42 n/a 22.79%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 161.73 146.62 191.48 n/a 18.39%
Jacksonville, FL 300.71 180.1 267.93 12.23% n/a
Kansas City, MO-KS 201.1 164.85 227.86 n/a 13.31%
Knoxville, TN 206.36 178.41 223.16 n/a 8.14%
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI (MSAD) 208.79 140.34 173.7 20.20% n/a
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 191.24 183.07 204.93 n/a 7.16%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD) 277.75 166.65 267.07 4.00% n/a
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 200.59 187.83 235.13 n/a 17.22%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 176.58 144.51 185.61 n/a 5.11%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD) 420.23 215.69 362.65 15.88% n/a
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 236.64 191.32 238.66 n/a 0.85%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 265.28 190.39 263.96 0.50% n/a
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA (MSAD) 213.7 185.74 211.73 0.93% n/a
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD) 302.5 240.14 277.55 8.99% n/a
New Orleans-Metairie, LA 264.81 223.28 295.59 n/a 11.62%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (MSAD) 273.42 220.07 254.94 7.25% n/a
Newark, NJ-PA (MSAD) 268.37 208.09 239.14 12.22% n/a
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 344.42 161.54 297.1 15.93% n/a
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA (MSAD) 308.47 163.63 314.77 n/a 2.04%
Oklahoma City, OK 201.71 193.06 242.19 n/a 20.07%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 201.21 181.39 228.16 n/a 13.39%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 288.98 142.23 238.06 21.39% n/a
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 284.85 172.31 261.07 9.11% n/a
Philadelphia, PA (MSAD) 239.58 256.32 256.32 n/a 6.99%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 342.67 163.01 305.85 12.04% n/a
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 338.89 251.3 412.79 n/a 21.81%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 243.49 178.56 218 11.69% n/a
Raleigh, NC 200.89 178.79 244.16 n/a 21.54%
Richmond, VA 240.83 184.28 238.52 0.97% n/a
Rochester, NY 140.25 135.62 155.32 n/a 10.75%
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA 257.84 125.83 219.22 17.62% n/a
Salt Lake City, UT 355.26 263.31 394.68 n/a 11.10%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 298.91 189.67 294.13 1.63% n/a
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 289.75 198.71 347.45 n/a 19.91%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD) 299.21 206.58 352.66 n/a 17.86%
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD (MSAD) 280.58 206.51 254.97 10.04% n/a
St. Louis, MO-IL 212.25 175.21 221.36 n/a 4.29%
Syracuse, NY 150.38 142.05 159.23 n/a 5.89%
Tacoma-Lakewood, WA (MSAD) 296.71 181.91 286.73 3.48% n/a
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 314.04 171.51 286.02 9.80% n/a
Tulsa, OK 191.52 171.94 219.31 n/a 14.51%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 275.07 206.68 240.47 14.39% n/a
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (MSAD) 207.37 124.33 205.3 1.01% n/a
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSAD) 284.62 206.34 288.51 n/a 1.37%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL (MSAD) 322.32 153.71 288.07 11.89% n/a
Wichita, KS 184.09 165.39 200.43 n/a 8.88%
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ (MSAD) 217.39 165.54 181.63 19.69% n/a
Winston-Salem, NC 174.17 153.8 181.62 n/a 4.28%
Worcester, MA-CT 232.06 169.88 212.9 9.00% n/a

More about the HPI

The Home Price Index is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It has been published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and precursor agencies since the fourth quarter of 1995.

For each market, the index uses 1990 home prices as a basis. Those dollars are "normalized" to a value of 100 for each market; that is, regardless of the actual dollar cost, the index value for a given market becomes 100. For example, a home price in Allentown, PA in 1990 might have been $65,000; this becomes a base value for Allentown of 100, and changes since then are presented as percentage changes from that initial 100 value.

The HPI is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The HPI does not include property transactions backed by FHA, VA, USDA or non-conforming (i.e. jumbo) mortgages.

The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinances on the same properties.

The HPI shows the relative change in prices in a metropolitan area from quarter to quarter or period to period. HSH.com has pulled out information from each area to show the amount of change from 1990 to the pre-housing-crisis peak, the low achieved during or after the peak, and how much improvement has taken place since that near-term bottom.

The FHFA uses the revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in February 2013. If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions.

For more details on the HPI and how it is put together, see http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Housing-Price-Index-Frequently-Asked-Questions.aspx

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