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Thinking about buying a home this spring? Check out the latest update to the income needed to buy a median-priced home in the top 50 metro areas.

Thinking about buying a home this spring? Check out the latest update to the income needed to buy a median-priced home in the top 50 metro areas.

Home price recovery index: Which metros have improved the most, least?

Keith Gumbinger

home price recovery By September 2021, homes in all 100 of the top metro markets fully recovered any value they lost during the last housing bust, and overall, home values have only continued to climb since then. However, as they move at various speeds, that doesn't mean there still isn't a race to the top... and up from the bottom, too.

The geographic mix of markets with the greatest value increases since previous price peaks continues to change, as does the group of areas where home value recoveries have taken longer and been more meager. While home values in all markets are above the peaks of the last boom, at least some areas are less so of late, as home values in some metropolitan have retreated a bit from pandemic-fueled record highs.

HSH.com’s Home Price Recovery Index uses a Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index as a basis to determine which of the top 100 housing markets have fully recovered value lost (or more) in the last housing bust and which still lag behind in the current housing recovery. The time period covered by the HPI begins with the first quarter of 1991 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2023. We compare the metro's previous peak value from the mid-2000s housing boom against present values to determine if a given market has recovered all of its value lost in the 2011-2013 housing market bust, and how much above previous high-water marks a market is now.

Quarterly update:
Since more home sales take place when an existing home is sold to a new buyer, it stands to reason that issues in this portion of the market will drive changes in home values. In the fourth quarter of each year, "seasonality" comes into play, as sellers looking to get out of properties before the holidays or the winter months may accept somewhat lower offers for their homes. At the same time, more patient sellers simply take their homes off the market until the holidays have passed.

Seasonal effects were seen in the fourth quarter of this year, but the effect on inventories and prices was more muted than in years past. The few homes on the market were pursued by even fewer buyers, as the highest mortgage rates in about 22 years were seen during the period and existing home sales slumped to about 30 year lows. However, homes that were available to buy saw enough demand as to help support home values, and far fewer metro areas saw seasonal price softening compared to last year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, only 13 of the top 100 metro housing markets saw a quarter-to-quarter decline in home values; last year, this was 39 of 100 metros. Four metros posted year-over-year declines, down from six comparing the 4Q22 to 4Q21 periods.

Now more than three years after pandemic conditions fully upended the housing market -- and a period where interest rates ran from record lows to multi-decade highs -- it looks as though more typical patterns are starting to be seen in real estate markets. For example, the 13 metros that saw value decreases in the fourth quarter of 2023 matched the number seen in 4Q19, the final quarter before the viral outbreak.

Most recovered group
There were again no changes in the top ten metro areas that have enjoyed the greatest value increases since the mid-aughts housing boom, but there has been some changing of positions. Cooling in one of the nation's hottest housing markets has seen the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown TX area drop out of the top "most recovered" position, allowing the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO market to retake the crown for this quarter. Austin's present value is still 172.93% above it's previous boom-era high back in the third quarter of 2008, but this is far below the 216.33% above this area reached in the second quarter of 2022. Since that peak, values in this market have now declined for six consecutive quarters.

There were a few other position-swapping changes in the most recovered group. The Knoxville TN metro area climbed two spots to reach the sixth slot, while the Greenville-Anderson SC market edged one position higher to #8. To make room for these gains, the Buffalo-Cheektowaga NY market slid from spot #6 to spot #9, as it was one of two metro areas to sport a value decline during the period (the other was Austin, TX).

It'll take some softening of values in the top group of metros and some strengthening in value by those metros just outside it to effect any change in the "most recovered" list. Although they have some gap to close, the three metros with the best shot to move up are Charleston-North Charleston SC, Grand Rapids-Kentwood MI and Raleigh-Cary, NC, all who are within a couple of percentage points of cracking the top ten. With the late winter and spring homebuying seasons approaching, it's more about which markets see values rise the fastest rather than expecting to see top-ranked areas post declines.

The metro areas with the smallest gains over values seen in the prior boom continued to benefit from rising values. Of the least improved 10 metros, only the Stockton CA saw a quarterly dip in value, although this was a 1.38% decline from the value attained in the third quarter. The nine others continued to post gains ranging from a modest 0.35% in the Fresno CA metro area to a very solid 3.64% in the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT, where it appears that outmigration from New York is helping to lift home values in the area.

While the Bakersfield CA metro area continues to be the metro with the smallest gains since the last housing boom, prices here are now 27.19% above peak levels attained way back in the second quarter of 2006. It's hard to think that this market's prior "boom-era" high is now nearly 18 years ago, but it's also worth considering that this market didn't even reach a fully recovered level until the second quarter of 2021.

Retiring the HPRI
As we've noted in the last few updates to the HPRI, we knew at some point there would be no more "recovery" in our Home Price Recovery Index. We expect to track the "most recovered" group for a while longer yet, and of course, HSH's Home Value Estimator (MyHPI) will continue to be updated, so you can track changes in your favorite metro as we go along.

More than a year ago, we introduced a new means of following changes in home values. Our Home Value Tracker uses a different set of FHFA data that includes both repeat purchases and refinances, so it's a very robust data set. However, as there is no "refinancing season" (and in fact, no refinancing at times at all!) the data is not seasonally adjusted and so can be more volatile from quarter to quarter.

That said, Home Value Tracker covers more than four times the metro areas as did our HPRI covering over 400 metros in all, and provides five value-change reference points -- change from last quarter, two quarters ago and one, three and five years ago. The new HVT contains two tables showing home values changes in the metros with the 10 largest and 10 smallest home price changes over the last year, and a unique lookup tool so you can see your local market's changes over those time points, too.

We've also created a new custom-time-period tracking tool Home Value Tracker-MyHVT, where you can see what's happened to home values in any of the 400+ metros over any time frame you like, including what's happened while you owned your home (or any other period) -- from 1995 to now.

How has your home value changed in the time you've owned it?
The HPRI only reviews trough-to-peak changes for each market in our evaluation, so your local experience in value change from when you purchased your home to today will of course be different. To see what's happened with home prices during the time you've owned your home, check our home value estimator, MyHPI. To see where you are in your mortgage, use our mortgage amortization calculator.

Tracking and projecting your home equity
The combination of home price increases and your retirement of the amount you owe may see you with a larger equity stake than you think. If you're interested in how much equity you've got in your home or are looking to pursue a future home equity goal, you'll want to check out our Home Equity Calculator and Projector.

10 metro areas that have recovered the most

Metro
Area
Peak high
value
Post-peak
Low value
Current
value
Amount
now
above
prev peak
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 269.87 247.64 737.01 173.10%
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 264.94 254.65 723.09 172.93%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD) 170.78 163.54 448.26 162.48%
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 220.00 193.59 576.80 162.18%
Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine, TX (MSAD) 167.18 158.87 421.92 152.37%
Knoxville, TN 205.11 179.20 488.59 138.21%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 193.44 158.70 460.65 138.14%
Greenville-Anderson, SC 191.36 171.57 450.80 135.58%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY 145.45 144.55 336.49 131.34%
Boise City, ID 294.27 161.73 675.02 129.39%

Can some locations or properties still not have achieved recovery?

Since the HPRI compares values that are derived from an entire metropolitan area (some of these quite expansive) it's certainly possible that some homes or neighborhoods have not participated in the home price recovery as strongly as other areas in the same metro. In fact, and although it continues to diminish, CoreLogic reported that in the third quarter of 2023, the total number of residential properties with negative equity was still 1 million homes, or 1.82% of all mortgaged properties. Well-supported home values are helping to keep this figure fairly level, but is at a the bottom of its recent range at the moment.

However, even if home prices don't increase for such homes or areas, homeowners will eventually come to a positive equity position as they make regular payments on their mortgages, and even small improvements in home values over time will tend to help fill in any value gap. In this way, even if the value of a specific home hasn't yet returned to a previous high, it's not as though the homeowner won't ever have any equity.

For example, in the case of a home purchased at a previous price peak in early 2006 (and assuming no refinance of the mortgage) the homeowner would have paid off about 32 percent of the original loan amount by now. This calculation doesn't include any downpayment the homeowner may have made, so the equity stake would be increased by that amount, too. Purchases made before the peak period or after prices began to descend would see this equity stake be increased as well. Given interest rates in place in 2006 -- 30-year FRMs at about 6.5% in the third quarter, odds favor that a homeowner would have refinanced at least once (if not twice) by now to take advantage of falling rates, and a 3.5% refinance in September 2012 would still even see the homeowner with more than a 32% retirement of principal by now.

How has the value of YOUR home changed?

HSH.com has developed a tool that allows you to see how the price change in your market has affected the value of your home. With our "Home Value Estimator," you select your market and the time frame in which you have owned your home to estimate how the changes in your market have impacted your home’s value. If your market still hasn't fully recovered and you think your home is still underwater, find out when you'll have positive home equity again with our KnowEquity When calculator.

All now recovered, the remaining 90 metro areas

Here's a look at the remaining 90 metro areas from the FHFA's HPI list.

Metro
Area
Peak high
value
Post-peak
Low value
Current
value
Amount still
below peak
value
Amount
now above
prev peak
Akron, OH 176.84 139.88 303.28 n/a 71.50%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 183.25 167.38 305.03 n/a 66.46%
Albuquerque, NM 238.8 188.73 385.92 n/a 61.61%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 203.84 151.99 304.4 n/a 49.33%
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA (MSAD) 286.8 196.6 471.71 n/a 64.47%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA 198.21 137.94 427.05 n/a 115.45%
Bakersfield, CA 252.01 118.33 320.52 n/a 27.19%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 267.49 204.71 355.34 n/a 32.84%
Baton Rouge, LA 229.83 213.5 341.7 n/a 48.68%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL 211.63 173.35 380.58 n/a 79.83%
Boston, MA (MSAD) 268.05 218.66 477.61 n/a 78.18%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 239.61 181.11 330.44 n/a 37.91%
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA (MSAD) 256.94 211.52 468.25 n/a 82.24%
Camden, NJ (MSAD) 222.82 162.46 331.95 n/a 48.98%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 317.17 132.1 493.76 n/a 55.68%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 285.92 202.33 652.08 n/a 128.06%
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL (MSAD) 236.8 159.21 304.65 n/a 28.65%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 178.97 148.81 344.89 n/a 92.71%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 173.04 133.97 292.36 n/a 68.96%
Colorado Springs, CO 259.77 216.58 566.37 n/a 118.03%
Columbia, SC 186.94 160.35 342.05 n/a 82.97%
Columbus, OH 179.97 157.25 395.91 n/a 119.99%
Dayton-Kettering, OH 155.5 124.61 283.21 n/a 82.13%
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD) 207.29 111.59 322.77 n/a 55.71%
El Paso, TX 196.59 171.08 323.34 n/a 64.47%
Elgin, IL (MSAD) 200.2 128.16 270.97 n/a 35.35%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise, FL (MSAD) 351.28 176.46 595.95 n/a 69.65%
Frederick-Gaithersburg-Rockville, MD (MSAD) 276.6 205.02 366.39 n/a 32.46%
Fresno, CA 273.76 137.98 362.17 n/a 32.29%
Gary, IN (MSAD) 187.42 158.75 336.74 n/a 79.67%
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI 183.73 136.75 415.81 n/a 126.32%
Greensboro-High Point, NC 166.93 142.26 322.39 n/a 93.13%
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT 172.15 144.23 245.16 n/a 42.41%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 196.5 189.75 426.65 n/a 117.12%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 159.03 144.05 358.86 n/a 125.66%
Jacksonville, FL 300.01 179.75 529.21 n/a 76.40%
Kansas City, MO-KS 200.12 163.87 413.96 n/a 106.86%
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI (MSAD) 208.94 138.94 269.09 n/a 28.79%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 268.91 100.14 380.59 n/a 41.53%
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 190.89 182.05 315.4 n/a 65.23%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD) 276.06 165.27 438 n/a 58.66%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 200.14 186.22 381.52 n/a 90.63%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 175.48 144.19 319.4 n/a 82.02%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD) 414.25 214.09 745.81 n/a 80.04%
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI 234.96 187.98 402.65 n/a 71.37%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 262.7 186.83 405.92 n/a 54.52%
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA (MSAD) 212.28 182.16 342.99 n/a 61.57%
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD) 299.81 234.03 449.31 n/a 49.86%
New Haven-Milford, CT 201.23 152.31 281.06 n/a 39.67%
New Orleans-Metairie, LA 265.33 222.08 408.87 n/a 54.10%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (MSAD) 270.74 218.21 407.73 n/a 50.60%
Newark, NJ-PA (MSAD) 270.1 205.19 387.82 n/a 43.58%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 340.37 160.45 602.93 n/a 77.14%
Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD) 307.7 162.1 477.31 n/a 55.12%
Oklahoma City, OK 200.31 192.03 390.98 n/a 95.19%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 200.69 181.07 401.3 n/a 99.96%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 285.4 141.09 474.71 n/a 66.33%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 284.5 173.05 410.48 n/a 44.28%
Philadelphia, PA (MSAD) 236.9 202.03 392.6 n/a 65.72%
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ 339.02 159.78 626.8 n/a 84.89%
Pittsburgh, PA 178.35 173.78 365.91 n/a 105.16%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 335.4 246.76 622.7 n/a 85.66%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 242.22 175.94 399.96 n/a 65.12%
Raleigh-Cary, NC 198.38 173.62 448.56 n/a 126.11%
Richmond, VA 238.14 182.67 419.47 n/a 76.14%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 272.01 127.94 407.1 n/a 49.66%
Rochester, NY 138.04 133.91 277.48 n/a 101.01%
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA 258.08 126.25 361.26 n/a 39.98%
Salt Lake City, UT 352.65 259.7 755.76 n/a 114.31%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 212.9 196.85 470.37 n/a 120.93%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA 298.13 187.02 531.66 n/a 78.33%
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA (MSAD) 280.94 212.96 488.24 n/a 73.79%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 293.86 196.38 556.32 n/a 89.31%
Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA (MSAD) 295.27 201.69 589.11 n/a 99.52%
St. Louis, MO-IL 210.61 171.51 346.42 n/a 64.48%
Stockton, CA 272.63 108.56 354.21 n/a 29.92%
Syracuse, NY 147.96 139.68 284.06 n/a 91.98%
Tacoma-Lakewood, WA (MSAD) 292.12 181.45 572.85 n/a 96.10%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 310.15 168.19 629.69 n/a 103.03%
Tucson, AZ 303.78 172.9 502.18 n/a 65.31%
Tulsa, OK 187.33 170.42 366.8 n/a 95.80%
Urban Honolulu, HI 194.27 173.61 312.27 n/a 60.74%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 273.64 205.58 383.53 n/a 40.16%
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (MSAD) 206.28 122.38 339.93 n/a 64.79%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSAD) 281.6 200.64 412.25 n/a 46.40%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL (MSAD) 321.35 153.96 609.13 n/a 89.55%
Wichita, KS 183.21 164.96 346.88 n/a 89.33%
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ (MSAD) 216.35 165.33 305.13 n/a 41.04%
Winston-Salem, NC 173.54 153.74 329.99 n/a 90.15%
Worcester, MA-CT 231.38 168.81 373.79 n/a 61.55%

More about the HPI

The Home Price Index is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It has been published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and precursor agencies since the fourth quarter of 1995.

For each market, the index uses 1991 home prices as a basis. Those dollars are "normalized" to a value of 100 for each market; that is, regardless of the actual dollar cost, the index value for a given market becomes 100. For example, a home price in Allentown, PA in 1991 might have been $65,000; this becomes a base value for Allentown of 100, and changes since then are presented as percentage changes from that initial 100 value.

The HPI is based on purchase-only transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The HPI does not include property transactions backed by FHA, VA, USDA or non-conforming (e.g. jumbo) mortgages.

The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same properties.

The HPI shows the relative change in prices in a metropolitan area from quarter to quarter or period to period. HSH.com has pulled out information from each area to show the amount of change from 1991 to the pre-housing-crisis peak, the low achieved during or after the peak, and how much improvement has taken place since that near-term bottom.

The FHFA uses the revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in Bulletin 20-01. If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions.

For more details on the HPI and how it is put together, see http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Housing-Price-Index-Frequently-Asked-Questions.aspx

Mahesh January 28, 2019 9:58 am

one of the most important information who planning to invest in a home. Thanks, Keith Gumbinger.

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