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Latest Rate Analysis

Solid economic data and a recovering stock market powered a surge in mortgage rates this week, pushing the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM to more than a seven-and-a-half-year high.

Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for the nation's most popular mortgage rose by 11 basis points (0.11%) to 4.94%, its highest mark since February 2011. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by a tenth of a percentage point (0.10%), rising to an average offered rate of 4.33%, its loftiest level since March 2010. Hybrid 5/1 ARMs also rose by 10 basis points (0.10%), also returning to more than an eight-year high attained just two weeks ago.

Upward pressure for rates remains in place, but perhaps less so at the moment than we saw late last week and earlier in this one. At best, rates may level off in the days ahead or creep slightly higher.

We review market conditions more completely each week in our MarketTrends newsletter. You should check it out.

30 Year Fixed
15 Year Fixed
5/1 Year ARM
Source: Freddie Mac
Current Mortgage Rates
Week08/2308/3009/0609/1309/2009/2710/0410/1110/1810/2511/0111/08
30-year-Fixed 4.510% 4.520% 4.540% 4.600% 4.650% 4.720% 4.710% 4.900% 4.850% 4.860% 4.830% 4.940%
15-year-Fixed 3.980% 3.970% 3.990% 4.060% 4.110% 4.160% 4.150% 4.290% 4.260% 4.290% 4.230% 4.330%
5-year-ARM 3.820% 3.850% 3.930% 3.930% 3.920% 3.970% 4.010% 4.070% 4.100% 4.140% 4.040% 4.140%
Source: Freddie Mac
Updated 11/08/2018
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30 Year Fixed
Updated 11/12/2018
AmCap 30 Yr. Fixed
5.000%5.040%$1,584
RateAPRMonthly Payment
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HARP 2.0 Refinance Loan 3.3% FIXED
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Texas Interest Rates as low as 4% (4.708APR)
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Find out if you are pre-approved for a mortgage
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  • Compare rates from up to 5 lenders
  • Select the personalized loan program that suits you best
Mortgage Choices at a Glance
Loan type/termsFixed 30 yearsFixed 15 years/
20 Years		Hybrid ARMTraditional ARMBalloon Mortgage
Rate changes
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Usually after fixed period of 3, 5, 7 or 10 years
  • After that, annual change typical
  • Fully variable
  • Typically changing at one-year intervals
  • Some have shorter change intervals
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
Benefits
  • Low, stable payment
  • Usually easiest qualification
  • Stable payments
  • Builds equity faster
  • Lower total interest costs than 30-year term
  • Lower rates than fully fixed-rate mortgage
  • Can sometimes borrow larger loan amount for same income
  • Can have lowest interest rates
  • Qualification may not depend upon today's interest rate
  • Often has lower interest rate/monthly payment over balloon period than fixed rate
  • Similar to hybrid ARM
Drawbacks/Risks
  • Can have highest total interest cost over time
  • User may "buy" more rate stability than actually needed, increasing cost
  • Requires higher income to qualify
  • Less affordable monthly payment
  • Funds commited to payment cannot be used elsewhere
  • Stable payment for a number of years, then unpredictable
  • Rates can jump by as much as 6 percentage points at first adjustment
  • Payments fluctuate at each rate change
  • Unpredictable, rates can change as much as 2 percentage points at each adjustment
  • Loan fully due and payable when balloon period ends
  • Must be paid off or refinanced in unknown market conditions
Alternative strategy
  • Consider Hybrid ARM with appropriate fixed period
  • Consider 30-year term and prepaying loan to preserve cash-flow flexibility
  • Consider Fixed rate mortgage or longest possible fixed period, if loan hold period not known
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ameliorate rate and payment risks for a given period
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ensure continued loan availability
These may be useful for...
  • Purchasing a home
  • First-time homebuyers
  • Refinancing to improve cash flow/lower payment
  • Refinancing to lower total interest cost
  • Retiring mortgage more quickly
  • Building or rebuilding equity more quickly
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is seven years or shorter, and where borrower can handle increase in monthly payments
  • Purchasing or refinancing when interest rates are near top of cycle, and are likely to fall, or sale or refinance is anticipated within three years
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is three years or longer and home will be sold prior to end of balloon period
Consider if
  • Buying or refinancing a home and planning on owning for longer than 10 years
  • Buying second home
  • Refinancing to build equity
  • Paying off mortgage before life event (retirement, etc)
  • Buying a home and expect to move before fixed period ends, or know income will rise to offset payment risk, even in worst-case scenario
  • Buying or refinancing when income can handle frequent payment changes and worst-case scenario for rates over a four-year period
  • Buying a home and expect to move before balloon period ends, or have resources to pay off mortgage if refinance not available
When shopping, ask about
  • "Full cost" vs. "No cost" refinances, prepaying loan to shorten term if desired
  • If 20-year term makes payment too high, whether 25-year term is available
  • Interest rate caps, for first and subsequent adjustments, worst-case scenario
  • A history of the Index the loan is keyed off, margin and caps
  • Whether or not there is any built-in refinancing option when the balloon period ends
Useful tools & resources

Latest mortgage rate analysis

HSH Market Trends

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MarketTrends 11/09/2018: Mortgage Rates Leg Higher

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Two-Month Mortgage Rate Forecast - October 26, 2018

HSH's longer-range outlook for mortgage rates, where we review our last forecast, discuss current market influences and provide our expectations for mortgage rates over the next nine weeks.

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HSH.com Annual Mortgage Rate Outlook

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The latest ARM indexes

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HSH.com on the latest move by the Federal Reserve

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