With the Income You Need to Buy a Median-Priced Home rising - you may need to Learn About Adjustable Rate Mortgages to preserve affordability.

With the Income You Need to Buy a Median-Priced Home rising - you may need to Learn About Adjustable Rate Mortgages to preserve affordability.

Today's Mortgage Rates - 08/17/2022

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The unexpected drop in mortgage rates seen last week mostly reversed this week.

Freddie Mac reported today that the average offered interest rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by twenty-three basis points (0.23%) to 5.22%. A like-sized increase was seen in the average offered rate for a conforming fifteen-year FRMs, where a 23-basis point increase lifted the rate for the most popular shorter-term mortgage back up to 4.59%. The initial fixed interest rate for a hybrid 5/1 ARM also increased, rising by eighteen one-hundredths of a percentage point (0.18%) to 4.43% for the week. This is the highest initial interest rate for the 5/1 ARM in more than twelve and a half years.

A couple of preliminary signs that inflation has at least leveled off has encouraged investors that the Fed may not need to raise rates as fast and as high as they have recently come to expect. Just last week, odds for another 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate in September were as high as two-to-one; after the softer Consumer and Produce Price reports for July, those odds reversed.

While this hasn't translated in to another decline in mortgage rates, it did keep the uptick that formed last week from continuing. One improved report on price pressures by itself isn't enough to keep the Fed from lifting rates sharply, and will need to be accompanied by at least a few more plus other signals that labor markets are loosening.

It may be a while before we see enough evidence to think that mortgage rates have a chance to fall on a sustained basis, but for now mixed signals can at least help them stabilize around present levels. Another report covering import and export costs comes on Friday, and if it is also relatively benign, there's a chance for a slight decline in mortgage rates in the coming days.

Each week in HSH's MarketTrends newsletter, we track and discuss economic conditions that affect mortgage rates and their impact on housing markets and consumers. Read the most recent edition of MarketTrends or subscribe for email delivery.

Week 30-year-Fixed 15-year-Fixed 5-year-ARM
08/11 5.220% 4.590% 4.430%
08/04 4.990% 4.260% 4.250%
07/28 5.300% 4.580% 4.290%
07/21 5.540% 4.750% 4.310%
07/14 5.510% 4.670% 4.350%
07/07 5.300% 4.450% 4.190%
06/30 5.700% 4.830% 4.500%
06/23 5.810% 4.920% 4.410%
06/16 5.780% 4.810% 4.330%
06/09 5.230% 4.380% 4.120%
06/02 5.090% 4.320% 4.040%
05/26 5.100% 4.310% 4.200%

Mortgage Choices at a Glance

Loan type/terms Fixed 30 years Fixed 15 years/
20 Years
Hybrid ARM Traditional ARM Balloon Mortgage
Rate changes
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Usually after fixed period of 3, 5, 7 or 10 years
  • After that, annual change typical
  • Fully variable
  • Typically changing at one-year intervals
  • Some have shorter change intervals
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Low, stable payment
  • Usually easiest qualification
  • Stable payments
  • Builds equity faster
  • Lower total interest costs than 30-year term
  • Lower rates than fully fixed-rate mortgage
  • Can sometimes borrow larger loan amount for same income
  • Can have lowest interest rates
  • Qualification may not depend upon today's interest rate
  • Often has lower interest rate/monthly payment over balloon period than fixed rate
  • Similar to hybrid ARM
  • Can have highest total interest cost over time
  • User may "buy" more rate stability than actually needed, increasing cost
  • Requires higher income to qualify
  • Less affordable monthly payment
  • Funds commited to payment cannot be used elsewhere
  • Stable payment for a number of years, then unpredictable
  • Rates can jump by as much as 6 percentage points at first adjustment
  • Payments fluctuate at each rate change
  • Unpredictable, rates can change as much as 2 percentage points at each adjustment
  • Loan fully due and payable when balloon period ends
  • Must be paid off or refinanced in unknown market conditions
Alternative strategy
  • Consider Hybrid ARM with appropriate fixed period
  • Consider 30-year term and prepaying loan to preserve cash-flow flexibility
  • Consider Fixed rate mortgage or longest possible fixed period, if loan hold period not known
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ameliorate rate and payment risks for a given period
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ensure continued loan availability
These may be useful for...
  • Purchasing a home
  • First-time homebuyers
  • Refinancing to improve cash flow/lower payment
  • Refinancing to lower total interest cost
  • Retiring mortgage more quickly
  • Building or rebuilding equity more quickly
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is seven years or shorter, and where borrower can handle increase in monthly payments
  • Purchasing or refinancing when interest rates are near top of cycle, and are likely to fall, or sale or refinance is anticipated within three years
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is three years or longer and home will be sold prior to end of balloon period
Consider if
  • Buying or refinancing a home and planning on owning for longer than 10 years
  • Buying second home
  • Refinancing to build equity
  • Paying off mortgage before life event (retirement, etc)
  • Buying a home and expect to move before fixed period ends, or know income will rise to offset payment risk, even in worst-case scenario
  • Buying or refinancing when income can handle frequent payment changes and worst-case scenario for rates over a four-year period
  • Buying a home and expect to move before balloon period ends, or have resources to pay off mortgage if refinance not available
When shopping, ask about
  • "Full cost" vs. "No cost" refinances, prepaying loan to shorten term if desired
  • If 20-year term makes payment too high, whether 25-year term is available
  • Interest rate caps, for first and subsequent adjustments, worst-case scenario
  • A history of the Index the loan is keyed off, margin and caps
  • Whether or not there is any built-in refinancing option when the balloon period ends
Useful tools & resources

Latest Mortgage Rate Analysis

HSH's longer-range outlook for mortgage rates, where we review our last forecast,discuss current market influences and provide our expectations for mortgage rates over the next nine weeks.

Mortgage Calculators

Mortgage rates and more

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