After months of speculation, there was finally a change in the federal funds rate, as the Federal Reserve lowered the target rate of their key monetary policy tool by 50 basis points (0.50%). At 4.75% to 5%, the change returns it to a level last seen in late March 2023 and both the Fed markets expect further reductions in this rate in the coming months.
After the last federal funds increase in July 2023, the target rate was held firm for nearly 14 months, as the Fed waited for inflation to steadily retreat toward its 2% core PCE target. Since last July, core PCE has fallen from a 4.3% annual rate to 2.6% through July 2024, and the central bank expects that prices pressures will continue to diminish as time wends forward, returning to target by 2026.
Even with today's reduction, the funds rate is still considered to be "restrictive", as the gap between the current rate of inflation and the nominal federal funds rate is still wide. When the Fed last raised rates, the difference between core inflation and the funds rate was perhaps 1 percentage point or so; presently, it is perhaps 2.4 percentage points, meaning monetary policy is in some ways even more restrictive now then it was then, since the "real" (inflation adjusted) rate for federal funds has actually increased as inflation has declined.
While expectations for future cuts in rates are running high, the Fed gave no specific indication that policy will be changed again soon or on any regular basis. The official message from the Fed is that "The Committee [...] judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," which doesn't sound as though there's great urgency to cut rates again right away or continuing on an aggressive path. If course, "In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
As recently as June, the official Fed outlook suggested that a majority of Fed members saw at least one cut in rates by the end of 2024, and 8 of 19 expected that policy would be lowered a second time by the end of this year. Now, the September update to Fed members Summary of Economic Projections now forecasts perhaps at least another 50 and possibly 75 basis point reduction in the federal funds before the calendar turns, with a median federal funds rate projection by that time of 4.4%. Unlike June, all members expect to be lowering rates in the coming months, and these changes could take the form of a quarter-point cut at each of the November and December meetings, or a November skip and a half-point move in December, or other cadence.
While this is the beginning of a rate cutting cycle taking perhaps 18 months or more, it's not clear if the Fed is looking to move rates rapidly toward "neutral" or whether a more measured pace is to be expected. From the present level of the federal funds rate, there may be perhaps 175 basis points in reductions before a non-restrictive, non-stimulative "neutral" federal funds target rate is reached. That said, since it is a moving target and said to not be directly observable, it's not exactly clear where the "neutral" rate actually is at any given time. Presently, Fed members seem to believe at the moment that it is around the 3% level, somewhat higher than was the case leading up to the pandemic.
Still, the Fed continues to maintain that changes in monetary policy will depend on the incoming data, and that they are prepared to take steps as needed if labor markets or the broad economy stumble. From the statement: "The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals."
It is reasonable for the Fed to want to start moving away from excess restriction now that conditions have become more balanced. However, the economy at the moment doesn't appear to need the additional support that ongoing significant rate cuts might provide. After a lackluster 1.41% in the first quarter, GDP growth picked up considerably in the second quarter, doubling its first-period annual rate. The Fed again stated that "Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace."
It's also true that inflation continues to run at a level still a bit above the Fed's 2% core PCE target. At last look, core PCE held at a 2.6% annual rate through July, the lowest it has been since March 2021.
That said, the Fed continues to point to progress being made on inflation: "Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," noted the statement which closed the meeting. With this in mind, "The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent," and so felt comfortable in cutting rates by a larger-than-usual amount today.
With inflation easing, the Fed has become more aware of the changing conditions in labor markets, where the unemployment rate has recently crept up to 4.2%, it's highest level since November 2021 and some 0.8% above its April 2023 nadir. Acknowledging this, the meeting-closing statement noted "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low," while pointing out that the Fed remains "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."
Labor markets have also continued to cool, but generally as the Fed has both hoped and expected in a "normalization" process. Hiring has slowed, and the unemployment rate picked up from near-record low levels but still remains historically low. Companies have slowed and adjusted their demand for workers by reducing the number of open positions to be filled, but so far have not been laying existing employees off. As such, the labor market remains pretty solid but no longer frenzied as it was for a time.
Mr. Powell's prepared remarks noted that "If the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate."
Odds of Fed rate decreases
Today's move is the beginning of a new policy cycle for the Fed. Fed's Chair Powell's prepared remarks said that the decision to cut rates "reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent."
Even with today's cut, this key rate remains elevated and it likely will be for a while, even it the Fed routinely cuts rates at its coming meetings.
The September 2024 update of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed that Fed members expect to be lowering rates by at least two quarter-point decreases in the federal funds rate by year end, and cuts totaling 75 basis points over the next two meetings were a possibility. This is a considerable change from the "one or two" quarter-point cuts they forecast as recently as June, but conditions have changed since then.
In June, the median expectation for the level of the federal funds at the end of 2024 was 5.1%; up from the 4.6% forecast in March. Now September, this same forecast points to a median federal funds rate of 4.4%, and the down-up-down forecasts reflect the changes in thinking as the economy and inflation change over time.
There was also a change in the outlook for 2025; in June, Fed members saw a federal funds target rate in 2025 of 4.1%; this is now 3.4%, so members expect to be cutting rates more rapidly than they previously thought. Like the near term expectation, this mid-range outlook has also vacillated, moving from 3.9% in March to 4.1% in June to 3.4% in September.
Looking forward into the future, 2026 outlook for rates was also lowered, albeit slightly. Where a 3.1% median funds target was seen in July, this has now been moved down to 2.9%, likely a figure close to neutral, where it now expected to be into 2027. That said, these two-year and beyond outlooks are less forecast and more speculation, as anything can happen over this kind of time horizon.
While it's both hopeful and encouraging for potential borrowers that rates will likely be even lower at some point this year, it's also important to temper that enthusiasm. The reality is that even if there are two more cuts in rates in 2024, even a 4.25% median federal funds rate would only return it to about where it was in November-December 2022... and this would still be as high as this rate was back in late 2007. As such, this key short-term rate would move only from about 23-year highs back down to the equivalent of perhaps 17 year highs. The cost of money will be cheaper, but still by no means cheap.
The next Fed meeting comes in early November (6th & 7th). Just prior to this meeting, futures markets reckoned that there is about a 74% chance that another cut of at least a quarter percentage point will come then.
Fed's "balance sheet" trends
In addition to raising rates, the Fed is continuing the process of "significantly" reducing its balance sheet and is now trying to retire $35 billion of MBS and $25 billion (formerly $60b) of Treasury debt from its investment portfolio each month. Higher market-engineered mortgage rates over the last year crushed refinancing, slowed mortgage market activity considerably, and softened housing sales appreciably.
Achieving desired levels of portfolio runoff of mortgage holdings may eventually see the Fed need to conduct outright sales of MBS. With mortgage rates high, home sales slow and refinancing at a virtual standstill, the current rate of MBS runoff was and is highly likely to run below desired levels, and has been since the runoff program began 29 months ago.
The general process of balance-sheet reduction is accomplished by no longer using the proceeds of inbound interest and principal payments from the Fed's existing holdings to buy more bonds. As such, reductions in holdings are happening as borrowers whose mortgages make up those MBS pay down their loan balances, which any homeowner knows is a slow process.
As of September 11 the Fed held $2.300 trillion in mortgage paper, down from $2.707 trillion when the QT program began in June 2022, so the reduction in MBS holdings isn't happening at the pace the Fed had hoped. By design, some $962.5 billion should have been trimmed from Fed MBS holdings by the end of this month, but the decline has only been about $407.6 billion so far, far less than half of what the Fed was hoping to see. While MBS holdings will decline faster as mortgage rates decline and refinancing activity picks up, the Fed's present holdings of MBS are at a level they thought would have occurred back in June-July 2023, so the process of reduction is more than a year behind schedule.
It's not known (the Fed may not even know at this point) what size the balance sheet will need to be in the Fed's "ample reserves" monetary regime. If we assume that the central bank was comfortable with the size of the balance sheet pre-pandemic, this would be total holdings of about $4 trillion, so they would need to achieve about $5 trillion in reduction over some period of time.
As of September 11, the total Fed balance sheet was about $7.115 trillion, so despite reducing its holdings by about $1.85 trillion, there remains a ways to go if the goal is to return to a pre-pandemic level. Recently, the Fed has slowed its runoff of Treasury holdings, limiting them to $25 billion per month (down from $60b), while MBS reductions remain at $35 billion. Redemptions of mortgages have not yet hit this cap in the since the start of the runoff program, but when they do, any redemptions in excess of $35b will be used to buy up more Treasury bonds rather than more MBS.
The Fed's next scheduled meeting comes November 6-7. Presently, it seems likely that another reduction in the federal funds rate will come at that time, but there is no updated to the Summary of Economic Projections due until the following meeting in December. As such, the September SEP is the best official policy guide we have until then.
What is the federal funds rate?
The federal funds rate is an intrabank, overnight lending rate. The Federal Reserve increases or decreases this so-called "target rate" when it wants to cool or spur economic growth.
The last change to this rate by the Federal Reserve came on September 18, 2024 and was the first decrease in the funds rate since March 2020, when the Fed began an aggressive series of cuts to support the economy as the pandemic upended everything. The current 5% rate is the lowest it has been since March 2023.
By the Fed's recent thinking, the long-run "neutral" rate for the federal funds is perhaps 2.8 percent or so, a level well below what has long been considered to be a "normal" level. The Fed raised the federal funds rate well above this normal level in order to temper inflation pressures that rose to more than 40-year highs in 2022. Once the Fed cycle of increases is complete, short-term rate may be slow to retreat to the Fed's "long-run" 2.8% rate. As of September 2024, the central bank's own forecast doesn't expect for it to return there until 2027 at the very earliest.
The Fed may establish a range for the federal funds rate or express a single value for this key monetary policy tool.
Related content: Federal Funds Rate - Graph and Table of Values
How does the Federal Reserve affect mortgage rates?
Historically, the Federal Reserve has only had an indirect impact on most mortgage rates, especially fixed-rate mortgages. That changed back in 2008, when the central bank began directly buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and financing bonds offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This "liquefied" mortgage markets, giving investors a ready place to sell their holdings as needed, helping to drive down mortgage rates.
After the program of MBS and debt accumulation by the Fed ended, they were still "recycling" inbound proceeds from maturing and refinanced mortgages to purchase replacement bonds for a number of years. This kept their holdings level and provided a steady presence in the mortgage market, which helped to keep mortgage rates steady and markets liquid.
This recycling of inbound funds lasted until June 2017, when the Fed announced that the process of reducing its so-called "balance sheet" (holdings of Treasuries and MBS) would start in October 2017. In a gradual process, the Fed in steps reduced the amount of reinvestment it was making until it eventually was actively retiring sizable pieces of its holdings. When the program was announced, the Fed held about $2.46 trillion in Treasuries and about $1.78 trillion in mortgage-related debt. It had been reducing holdings at a set amount and was on a long-run pace of "autopilot" reductions through December 2018.
In 2019, the Fed decided to begin winding down its balance-sheet-reduction program with a termination date of October. With signs of some financial distress showing in financial markets due to a lack of liquidity, the Fed decided to terminate its reduction program two months early.
For that run, the total amount of runoff ended up being fairly small, and the Fed was still left with huge investment holdings. At the time, the Fed's balance sheet was comprised of about $2.08 trillion in Treasuries and about $1.52 trillion in mortgage-related debt. Although no longer reducing the size of its portfolio, the Fed began to manipulate its mix of holdings, using inbound proceeds from maturing investments to purchase a range of Treasury securities that roughly mimicked the overall balance of holdings by investors in the public markets.
At the same time, up to $20 billion each month of proceeds from maturing mortgage holdings (mostly from early prepayments due to refinancing) were also to be invested in Treasuries; any redemption over that amount was be used to purchase more agency-backed MBS. Ultimately, the Fed prefers to have a balance sheet comprised solely of Treasuries obligations, and changing the mix of holdings from mortgages to Treasuries as mortgages were repaid was expected to take many years. But these well-considered plans didn't last.
Then came the pandemic. In response to turbulent market conditions from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed re-started QE-style purchases of Mortgage-Backed Securities in March 2020, so not only did the slow process of converting MBS holdings to Treasuries come to a halt, the Fed was again actively buying up new MBS, growing their mortgage holdings. Through October 2021, MBS purchases were running at a rate of $40 billion per month, and any inbound proceeds from principal repayments existing holdings were being reinvested in additional purchases. As economic conditions settled, MBS bond buys were trimmed to $30 billion per month starting in December 2021 and then to $20 billion per month in January 2022 and it was expected that a similar pace of reduction going forward would occur.
Since the Fed's restart of its MBS purchasing program in March 2020, it had by mid-April 2022 added more than $1.37 trillion of them to its balance sheet. Total holdings of MBS topped out at about $2.740 trillion dollars, and the Fed's mortgage holdings had doubled since March 2020.
The Fed has since concluded its bond-buying program. The start of a "runoff" process to reduce holdings was announced at the close of the May 2022 meeting and began in June 2022. Reductions of $17.5 billion in MBS in the first three months of the program increased to $35 billion per month in September 2022, and desired reductions in holdings remain at this pace today, but market redemptions remain well short of this goal.
What is the effect of the Fed's actions on mortgage rates?
Mortgage interest rates began cycling higher well in advance of the first increase in short-term interest rates. This is not uncommon; inflation running higher than desired in turn lifted expectations that the Fed would lift short-term rates, which in turn has lifted the longer-term rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages. Persistent inflation reinforced that cycle.
The reverse of the above is also true. Mortgage rates have decreased considerably from peak levels, as an improved outlook for price pressures, loosening labor market conditions and cooling economic growth all suggest that the Fed's cycle of increases has done its job, and that lower short-term rates will be coming.
Also important for this new rate-cutting cycle is that the Fed is no longer directly supporting the mortgage market by purchasing Mortgage-Backed Securities (which helps to keep that market liquid). This means that a reliable buyer of these instruments -- and one that did not care about the level of return on its investment -- has left the market.
This leaves only private investors to buy up new MBS, and these folks care very much about making profits on their holdings. Add in a range of risks to the economy -- including such things as the potential for softening home prices and this may make them more wary of purchasing MBS, even at relatively high yields. With the Fed also no longer purchasing Treasury bonds to help keep longer-term interest rates low, the yields that strongly influence fixed mortgage rates also rose, and may also be slower to decline than they have been in recent years.
What the Fed has to say about the future - how quickly or slowly it intends to raise rates or lower rates this year and beyond - will also determine if mortgage rates will rise or fall, and by how much. The path for future changes in the federal funds rate is of always uncertain, but the current expectation is that rates will generally be on a downward path over the next few years.
Does a change in the federal funds influence other loan rates?
Although it is an important indicator, the federal funds rate is an interest rate for a very short-term (overnight) loan. This rate does have some influence over a bank's so-called cost of funds, and changes in this cost of funds can translate into higher (or lower) interest rates on both deposits and loans. The effect is most clearly seen in the prices of shorter-term loans, including auto, personal loans and even the initial interest rate on some Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).
However, a change in the overnight rate generally has little to do with long-term mortgage rates (30-year, 15-year, etc.), which are influenced by other factors. These notably include economic growth and inflation, but also include the whims of investors, too. For more on how mortgage rates are set by the market, see "What moves mortgage rates? (The Basics)."
Does the federal funds rate affect mortgage rates?
Whenever the Fed makes a change to policy, we are asked the question "Does the federal funds rate affect mortgage rates?"
Just to be clear, the short answer is "no," as you can see in the linked chart.
That said, the federal funds rate is raised or lowered by the Fed in response to changing economic conditions, and long-term fixed mortgage rates do of course respond to those conditions, and often well in advance of any change in the funds rate. For example, even though the Fed was still holding the funds rate steady at near zero until March 2022, but fixed mortgage rates rose by better than three quarters of a percentage point in the months the preceded the March 17 increase. Rates increased amid growing economic strength and a increasing concern about broadening inflation pressures.
A more recent example also shows the converse effect. The Fed last raised rates in July 2023 held them steady through August 2024. Over that time, mortgage rates rose and then declined by well more than a full percentage point. All this change in mortgage rates happened while the Fed stood idly by.
What does the federal funds rate directly affect?
When the funds rate does move, it does directly affect certain other financial products. The prime rate tends to move in lock step with the federal funds rate and so affects the rates on certain products like Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), residential construction loans, some credit cards and things like business loans. All will generally see fairly immediate changes in their offered interest rates, usually of the same size as the change in the prime rate or pretty close to it. For consumers or businesses with outstanding lines of credit or credit cards, the change generally will occur over one to three billing cycles.
The prime rate usually increases or decreases within a day or two of a change in the federal funds rate.
Related content: Fed Funds vs. Prime Rate and Mortgage Rates
After a change to the federal funds rate, how soon will other interest rates rise or fall?
Changes to the fed funds rate can take a long time to work their way fully throughout the economy, with the effects of a change not completely realized for six months or even longer.
Often more important than any single change to the funds rate is how the Federal Reserve characterizes its expectations for the economy and future Fed policy. If the Fed says (or if the market believes) that the Fed will be aggressively lifting rates in the near future, market interest rates will rise more quickly; conversely, if they indicate that a long, flat trajectory for rates is in the offing, mortgage and other loan rates will only rise gradually, if at all. For updates and details about the economy and changes to mortgage rates, read or subscribe to HSH's MarketTrends newsletter.
Can a higher federal funds rate actually cause lower mortgage rates?
Yes. At some point in the cycle, the Federal Reserve will have lifted interest rates to a point where inflation and the economy will be expected to cool. We saw this as recently as 2023; after the eleventh increase in the federal funds rate over a little more than a 16-month period, economic growth slowed, labor markets cooled and inflation pressures waned, and mortgage rates retreated from multi-decade highs, falling by more than a percentage point and a half from peak levels by the time the Fed cut rates in September 2024.
The most recent episode of declining mortgage rates during the end of 2023 and start of 2024 also demonstrates this point.
As the market starts to anticipate this economic slowing, long-term interest rates may actually start to fall even though the Fed may still be raising short-term rates or holding them steady. Long-term rates fall in anticipation of the beginnings of a cycle of reductions in the fed funds rate, and the cycle comes full circle. For more information on this, Fed policy and how it affects mortgage rates, see our analysis of Federal Reserve Policy and Mortgage Rate Cycles.
