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HSH.com on the latest move by the Federal Reserve

While the short-term interest rates it controls remain unchanged, the Federal Reserve will begin reducing bond purchases by $15 billion per month starting immediately, but has only committed to these specific reductions for November and December of 2021.

November will see the Fed reduce its purchases of Treasury Bonds to $70 billion for the month, and purchases of Mortgage-Backed Securities will be pared to $35 for the period. A like-size reduction in December will pull these amounts down to $60 billion and $30 billion, respectively.

After that, the Fed did not specify what it would do, saying that while "The [Fed] judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook."

At the press conference that followed the close of the meeting, Fed Chair Powell noted that after the Delta variant of COVID-19 curtailed activity in the third quarter of 2021 that economic growth and improvement in the labor market is expected to be seen in the fourth quarter and presumably beyond. With that as a backdrop, we infer from the Fed's statement and Chair Powell's comments that a faster pace in reductions is very likely once the calendar turns to 2022.

With inflation already running well above Fed targets, the Fed is waiting only for more complete healing in the labor market to occur before it will start lifting rates from emergency levels. That said, the Fed has expressed that it wishes to have completed the bond-buying program before "liftoff". If economic growth turns higher, hiring re-strengthens and inflation remains at or near present levels, the Fed will want to raise rates sooner rather than later. Currently, federal funds futures markets are expecting one or two increases in rates to happen in 2022. If the Fed should taper at a $15 billion per month rate, bond buying would be complete in June, putting July or perhaps September as the likely date for a first rate hike. Should the pace of tapering be quickened, that expected date would moved forward, of course.

While the central bank continues to expect that the current spate of high prices will be "transient", the timeline for any expected fade in price pressures remains unclear. In his comments, Chair Powell took pains to note that the word "transient" has taken on a life of its own, but the Fed considers it a word best used to describe something that isn't permanent or having a lasting effect rather than alluding to any given period of time. This being the case, "transient" inflation may persist for rather a long time yet, and the Fed now appears to expect that such conditions through at least the early-to-mid part of next year.

As would be expected, the Fed once again reiterated "The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals."/p>

Before the April 2021 meeting, Fed officials essentially revealed that they won't consider changing interest rate policies until the economy is near full employment as measured by a range of observations, that core PCE inflation is holding at or above a 2% annual level and seems likely to hold there, and that longer-range inflation expectations remain tethered near that 2% core PCE rate. Although enough progress has been made to start to wind down extraordinary and emergency-level programs such as QE-style bond buying, and there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the Fed's goals for inflation have not only been met but exceeded, it may be a while before the "full employment" component of their dual mandate is judged to be reached. Before the pandemic hit, labor markets were the best in some 50 years, with unemployment at 3.5%, and the central bank is determined to try to get back to those levels.

Currently, The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes [maximum employment and average 2% core inflation] are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time."

As has been the case, the statement noted: "The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain."

This meeting did not include an updated Summary of Economic Projections. The next review and forecast from members covering economic growth, inflation and the outlook for short-term interest rates will come in December.

The next scheduled FOMC meeting will occur on December 14-15, 2021.

What is the federal funds rate?

The federal funds rate is an intrabank, overnight lending rate. The Federal Reserve increases or decreases this so-called "target rate" when it wants to cool or spur economic growth.

The last Fed move on March 15, 2020 was the fifth decrease in the funds rate since 2008, when the Fed last moved the rate to nearly zero. Before the pandemic outbreak, three quarter-point cuts in the key overnight lending rate were characterized by Fed Chairman Powell as a "mid-cycle adjustment", with the first of the total of five reductions coming in July 2019 and later accompanied by two additional "insurance" cuts in the federal funds rate. These moves were intended to offset the effects of a "trade war" between the U.S. and China and other nations. After the last of the three moves in October 2019. the Fed said that it expected to hold rates level for the foreseeable future. This of course began to change as the coronavirus pandemic increasingly disrupted economic activity, when the Fed added a half-point and then full-point cut in rates in short succession in March 2020.

By the Fed 's recent thinking, the long-run "neutral" rate for the federal funds may be as low as 2.5 percent, a level well below what has long been considered to be "normal" levels. As such, even if rates do rise over time, they may not get close to historic "normal" levels anytime soon.

The Fed can either establish a range for the federal funds rate, or may express a single value.

Related content: Federal Funds Rate - Graph and Table of Values

How does the Federal Reserve affect mortgage rates?

Historically, the Federal Reserve has only had an indirect impact on most mortgage rates, especially fixed-rate mortgages. That changed back in 2008, when the central bank began directly buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and financing bonds offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This "liquefied" mortgage markets, giving investors a ready place to sell their holdings as needed, helping to drive down mortgage rates.

After the program of MBS and debt accumulation by the Fed ended, they were still "recycling" inbound proceeds from maturing and refinanced mortgages to purchase replacement bonds for a number of years. This kept their holdings level and provided a steady presence in the mortgage market, which helped to keep mortgage rates steady.

In June 2017, the Fed announced that the process of reducing its so-called "balance sheet" (holdings of Treasuries and MBS) would start in October 2017. In this gradual process, the Fed trimmed back the amount of reinvestment it is making in steps until it eventually is actively retiring sizable pieces of its holdings. When the program was announced, the Fed held about $2.46 trillion in Treasuries and about $1.78 trillion in mortgage-related debt. It had been reducing holdings at a set amount and was on a long-run pace of "autopilot" reductions as recently as December 2018.

In 2019, the Fed decided to begin winding down its balance-sheet-reduction program with a termination date of October, but as of August 2019 decided to stop reducing its holdings altogether, ending the program two months early. As the total amount of balance sheet runoff was fairly small, the Fed was left with a huge set of investment holdings, presently comprised of about $2.08 trillion in Treasuries and about $1.52 trillion in mortgage-related debt. Starting in August 2019, all inbound proceeds from maturing investments were being used to purchase more Treasury securities of various maturities to roughly mimic the overall balance of holdings by investors.

As well, up to $20 billion each month of proceeds from maturing mortgage holdings (mostly from early prepayments due to refinancing) were also to be invested in Treasuries; any redemption over that amount will be used to purchase more agency-backed MBS. Ultimately, the Fed wishes to have a balance sheet comprised solely of Treasuries, but changing the mix of holdings from mortgages to Treasuries as mortgages are repaid will take many years.

In response to turbulent market conditions from the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed re-started QE-style purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities in March 2020, so not only did the slow process of converting MBS holdings to Treasuries come to a halt, the Fed has again been actively buying up new MBS, expanding their mortgage holdings for at least a time. Through October 2021, the current rate of outright purchases was $40 billion per month, and inbound proceeds from principal repayments on holdings and refinancings are also being reinvested. MBS bond buys will be trimmed to $35 billion per month for November 2021 and $30 billion per month in December; a similar pace of reduction going forward is expected. Since the Fed restarted their MBS purchasing program again in March 2020, it had by late early November 2021 added more than $1.161 trillion of them to its balance sheet, with total holdings of MBS now topping $2.528 trillion dollars.

The Fed is also again buying Treasury securities across the term spectrum at a rate of $80 billion per month, but these purchases will be reduced starting in November of 2021. The Fed expects to wind down its bond-buying program by the middle of 2022. Until them, any purchases of 10-year debt will help produce downward pressure on the yields that most influence fixed mortgage rates.

What is the effect of the Fed's actions on mortgage rates?

For this new cycle, more important than any change in the overnight intrabank lending rate is that the Federal Reserve is continuing to increase its holdings of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasuries. Having an active buyer in the market who will purchase these investments regardless of yield will help to keep mortgage rates more steady and likely at lower rates than would otherwise be the case if just private investors were the only market participants.

With mortgage rates recently and repeatedly hitting new "all-time" record lows there has been a surge in refinancing activity, so there will likely be a lot of new and lower-yielding bonds for the Fed to absorb as we move deeper into 2021 and beyond. Of late, downward pressure on mortgage rates will increase supplies of MBS to a degree, but there will still be plenty of Treasury debt for the Fed to absorb.

The Fed has a massive portfolio of these investments and as they mature or have been paid off (by refinancing) the central bank had been re-investing the inbound funds into more purchases (reinvestment), keeping its portfolio at a constant size. The new actions means that holdings will again be expanding, and while this is a stabilizing factor for the market, the prospects for inflation and continued economic expansion will play a greater role in dictating how interest rates will move.

What the Fed has to say about the future - how quickly or slowly it intends to raise rates or lower rates in 2021 and beyond - will also determine if mortgage rates will rise, and by how much. At the moment, and given the Fed's new long-term policy framework, the path for future changes in the federal funds rate is uncertain, but the current expectation is that it may be a year or more before the Fed again considers lifting the federal funds rate, if then. With rates pegged near zero again, monetary policy looking forward may look a lot like that we saw at times in the early to mid stages of the record-long economic expansion, which is to say on hold for an extended period.

HSH.com Federal Reserve Policy Tracking Graph

Does a change in the federal funds influence other loan rates?

Although it is an important indicator, the federal funds rate is an interest rate for a very short-term (overnight) loan. This rate does have some influence over a bank's so-called cost of funds, and changes in this cost of funds can translate into higher (or lower) interest rates on both deposits and loans. The effect is most clearly seen in the prices of shorter-term loans, including auto, personal loans and even the initial interest rate on some Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).

However, a change in the overnight rate generally has little to do with long-term mortgage rates (30-year, 15-year, etc.), which are influenced by other factors. These notably include economic growth and inflation, but also include the whims of investors, too. For more on how mortgage rates are set by the market, see "What moves mortgage rates? (The Basics)."

Does the federal funds rate affect mortgage rates?

Whenever the Fed makes a change to policy, we are asked the question "Does the federal funds rate affect mortgage rates?"

Just to be clear, the short answer is "no," as you can see in the linked chart.

That said, the federal funds rate is raised or lowered by the Fed in response to changing economic conditions, and long-term fixed mortgage rates do of course respond to those conditions, and often well in advance of any change in the funds rate. For example, even though the Fed was still holding the funds rate steady in autumn 2016, fixed mortgage rates rose by better than three quarters of a percentage point amid growing economic strength and a change in investor sentiment about future growth and tax policies during the period.

What does the federal funds rate directly affect?

When the funds rate does move, it does directly affect certain other financial products. The prime rate tends to move in lock step with the federal funds rate and so affects the rates on certain products like Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), residential construction loans, some credit cards and things like business loans. All will generally see fairly immediate changes in their offered interest rates, usually of the same size as the change in the prime rate or pretty close to it. For consumers or businesses with outstanding lines of credit or credit cards, the change generally will occur over one to three billing cycles.

Related content: Fed Funds vs. Prime Rate and Mortgage Rates

After a change to fed funds, how soon will other interest rates rise or fall?

Changes to the fed funds rate can take a long time to work their way fully throughout the economy, with the effects of a change not completely realized for six months or even longer.

Often more important than any single change to the funds rate is how the Federal Reserve characterizes its expectations for the economy and future Fed policy. If the Fed says (or if the market believes) that the Fed will be aggressively lifting rates in the near future, market interest rates will rise more quickly; conversely, if they indicate that a long, flat trajectory for rates is in the offing, mortgage and other loan rates will only rise gradually, if at all. For updates and details about the economy and changes to mortgage rates, read or subscribe to HSH's MarketTrends newsletter.

Can a higher federal funds rate actually cause lower mortgage rates?

Yes. At some point in the cycle, the Federal Reserve will have lifted interest rates to a point where inflation and the economy will be expected to cool. We saw this as recently as 2018; after the ninth increase in the federal funds rate over a little more than a two-year period, economic growth began to stall, inflation pressures waned, and mortgage rates retreated by more than a full percentage point.

As the market starts to anticipate this economic slowing, long-term interest rates may actually start to fall even though the Fed may still be raising short-term rates. Long-term rates fall in anticipation of the beginnings of a cycle of reductions in the fed funds rate, and the cycle comes full circle. For more information on this, Fed policy and how it affects mortgage rates, see our analysis of Federal Reserve Policy and Mortgage Rate Cycles.

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