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Can home prices predict the next Super Bowl champion?

 

Boston

It’s that time again--the start of a new year, snow storms, colder temperatures and the NFL playoffs. This year’s playoff teams are from a very diverse group of housing markets from all across the country.

But is there any relationship between home prices, mortgage rates and success in the NFL? Not really, but we thought it would be fun to forecast the winner of Super Bowl XLIX based off of higher home prices.

Last year, after the first round of the playoffs we discovered that each winning team's metro area had a higher mortgage rate than their opponent. Before the second round of games, we predicted a Super Bowl winner based off which team’s metro area had the higher mortgage rates. And guess what, we picked the right team! The Seattle Seahawks (and their metro area’s high mortgage rates) took home the Lombardi Trophy.

This year, after the first round we noticed that the metro areas of all the winning teams had higher home prices than their opponents. So, we are predicting the winner of Super Bowl XLIX based on which metro area has the higher home prices.

If higher home prices have a say, the New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl.

After you’re done with the slideshow, be sure to see our bracket prediction below…Go Pats!

  • Median-home price: $399,900
  • Mortgage rate: 4.26 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 64.2 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $84,475.91
  • Average ticket cost:  $414.22 (second highest)
  • Stadium name:  Gillette Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2013
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 2004
  • Current odds: Seahawks are a 2.5 point favorite in Super Bowl XLIX (1/20/15)

1/12/15: It was a shaky start for New England on Saturday afternoon, but the Patriots were able to overcome two separate 14-point deficits to defeat the Baltimore Ravens in a weekend full of exciting games. The Boston metro has higher home prices than Baltimore and the better team. Our Super Bowl pick is still in tact (for another week, at least).

  • Median-home price: $315,500
  • Mortgage rate: 4.28 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 62.1 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $63,019
  • Average ticket cost: $299.84
  • Stadium name: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
  • Last time in playoffs: 2013
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 1998
  • Current odds: Eliminated on 1/11/15

1/12/15: Higher home prices certainly did not decide the matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. And the fact that the Peyton-Manning era may have come to a close on a losing note to the Colts, Peyton's former team, is like pouring salt into the wounds of Denver fans. At least homeowners in the Denver metro can still cheer their stable home prices.

  • Median-home price: $149,800
  • Mortgage rate: 4.22 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 61.8 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $32,701.70
  • Average ticket cost: $266.05
  • Stadium name: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2013
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 2006
  • Current odds: Eliminated on 1/18/15

1/12/15: Peyton who? That's what at least some Colt's fans are saying this morning after Andrew Luck, Peyton's successor, led the team to a victory yesterday, contrary to our prediction (see below). In terms of Indianapolis versus Denver, Indy has the better football team and the more affordable home prices, but Denver has the stronger price growth.

  • Median-home price: $255,800
  • Mortgage rate: 4.19 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 64.1 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $57,189.18
  • Average ticket cost: $302.47
  • Stadium name: M&T Bank Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2012
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 2012
  • Current odds: Eliminated on 1/10/15

1/12/15: The Baltimore Ravens could not hold off Tom Brady and the New England Patriots this weekend. We'd like to think it had something to do with the fact that the median-home price in the Baltimore metro is $144,100 less than Boston's, but we know it was the Baltimore Ravens allowing the relentless Patriots the opportunity to battle back all game long.

  • Median-home price: $359,900
  • Mortgage rate: 4.28 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 61.8 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $75,098.06
  • Average ticket cost: $452.34 (highest ticket price in NFL)
  • Stadium name: CenturyLink Field
  • Last time in playoffs: 2013
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 2013
  • Current odds: Seahawks are a 2.5 point favorite in Super Bowl XLIX (1/20/15)

1/12/15: Last year's Super Bowl champs are right back in the playoff groove, getting one step closer to the big game (our higher-home-prediction has them going to the Super Bowl this year). Whether it's their high home prices or their stingy defense, Seattle is a forced to be reckoned with, both on the field and off the field.

  • Median-home price: $153,100
  • Mortgage rate: 4.18 (Milwaukee)
  • Homeownership rate: 54.2 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $36,542.51
  • Average ticket cost: $261.73
  • Stadium name: Lambeau Field
  • Last time in playoffs: 2013
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 2010
  • Current odds:  Eliminated on 1/18/15

1/12/15: Despite a hobbled quarterback, and thanks to perhaps the most controversial call of the entire playoffs so far, the Green Bay Packers defied our higher-home prediction and defeated the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Home prices in Green Bay have been steadily on the rise, just like their NFL franchise ever since Aaron Rodgers took over the helm under center.

  • Median-home price: $193,500
  • Mortgage rate: 4.31 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 59.1
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $50,283.73
  • Average ticket cost: $322.28
  • Stadium name: AT&T Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2009
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: 1995
  • Current odds: Eliminated on 1/11/15

1/12/15: Was it a catch or did Dez Bryant lose control of the football? Experts will be debating that costly call for some time to come. And it was that call that likely cost us our prediction that Dallas would defeat Green Bay because their metro area home price was higher. Oh, it was also that call that likely cost Dallas their season.

  • Median-home price: $201,500
  • Mortgage rate: 4.25 percent
  • Homeownership rate: 55.4 percent
  • Required salary to afford median-priced home: $41,966.13
  • Average ticket cost: $213.69
  • Stadium name: Bank of America Stadium
  • Last time in playoffs: 2013
  • Last time Super Bowl winner: Never
  • Current odds: Eliminated on 1/10/15

1/12/15: Carolina had the toughest matchup during the weekend, both from a team perspective and from a home price perspective. Carolina's 14-point loss was the largest defeat of the weekend, and the difference between home prices in the Charlotte metro and the Seattle metro is $158,400, the largest price spread on the board.

Median-home price:  Realtor.org (3Q14)

Mortgage rate:  HSH.com (3Q14)

Homeownership rate: Census (3Q14)

Salary: http://www.hsh.com/finance/mortgage/salary-home-buying-25-cities.html (3Q14)

Average ticket cost: TiqIQ.com (initial cost at start of 2014 season)

Team info: pro-football-reference.com

Current odds: cbssports.com

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Higher high prices predict Super Bowl champion

About the author:
Tim Manni is the Managing Editor of HSH.com and the author of the site's daily blog, which concentrates on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets.