Home price recovery index: Which metros have improved the most, least?

home price recovery Homes in all 100 of the top metro markets fully recovered any value they lost during the last housing bust a couple of quarters ago, but that doesn't mean there still isn't a race to the top... and up from the bottom, too. The geographic mix of markets with the greatest value increases since previous price peaks continues to change, as does the group of areas where home value recoveries have taken longer and been more meager.

HSH.com’s Home Price Recovery Index uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index as a basis to determine which of the top 100 housing markets have fully recovered value lost (or more) in last housing bust and which still lag behind the housing recovery. The time period covered by the HPI begins with the first quarter of 1991 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2021. We compare the metro's previous peak value from the mid-2000s boom against present values to determine if the given market has recovered all of its value lost in the housing bust of the 2011-2013 rout.

Quarterly Update
Home prices continued a string of significant increases in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the rising tide continues to lift all boats, if to different degrees. It was just two quarters ago that the very last market to achieve recovery of lost value crossed the finish line, and although still the laggard of the series, the Bakersfield, CA metro now finds its aggregate value almost 11% above the then-highest level it hit more than 15 years ago. Other markets have similar tales, and even metros in the so-called "sand states" (including those in FL, AZ, NV) that were once the poster children for the housing boom and bust have moved from being deeply in the red to well into the black at this point.

Most recovered group
There was some shuffling among the ranks of the markets with home values most above their previous "boom-era" price peaks. The Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN metro area moved up one slot to #5, displacing the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine, TX area, That was also the case for Salt Lake City, UT, rising to #7 and bumping Colorado Springs, CO down a notch. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX also moved up one slot to #9, and squeaking in behind it into the #10 position was the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA (MSAD) metro, knocking the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metro out of the top group. Just outside the top ten and just behind the Buffalo metro, a couple of North Carolina markets are moving up fast.

With the San Francisco metro nudging into the top ten, one thing to consider in this regard is that the FHFA data only catches value changes in loans bought by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In a metro area with such high housing costs -- the National Association of Realtors reported a reported a $1,310,000 median price for a home sold in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro in the fourth quarter, slightly cooler than in the third -- it's very likely that few mortgages made in the area sold to Fannie or Freddie so the FHFA data doesn't include them, even with the "expanded conforming" loan limit in the are topping out at $822,375 during the period. Private-market jumbos aren't part of the FHFA's data series, and they obviously comprise a sizable portion of the market.

There was some reordering of the ranks of the metros where values have risen the least above mid-aught's highest levels. Six metros held fast to their ranking slot from the third quarter, but New Haven-Milford, CT was bypassed by largest improvements in value in other metros, as was Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT. The Elgin, IL metro area saw values improve enough to move it up from #98 to #95, and the Fresno, CA market rose by four positions and out of the bottom ten grouping.

Retiring the HPRI
As noted above, we knew at some point there would be no more "recovery" in our Home Price Recovery Index. As we noted when all markets hit full recovery a couple of quarters ago, we'll continue to track the "most recovered" group for a while longer yet, and of course, HSH's Home Value Estimator (MyHPI) will continue to be updated, so you can track changes in your favorite metro as we go along.

Two quarters ago, we introduced a new means of following changes in home values. Our Home Value Tracker uses a different set of FHFA data that includes both repeat purchases and refinances, so it's a very robust data set. However, as there is no "refinancing season", the data is not seasonally adjusted and can be more volatile from quarter to quarter. That said, Home Value Tracker covers more than four times the metro areas as did our HPRI covering over 400 metros in all, and provides five value-change reference points -- change from last quarter, two quarters ago and one, three and five years ago. The new HVT contains two tables showing home values changes in the metros with the 10 largest and 10 smallest home price changes over the last year, and a unique lookup tool so you can see your local market's changes over those time points, too.

We've also created a new custom-time-period tracking tool Home Value Tracker-MyHVT, where you can see what's happened to home values in any of the 400+ metros over any time frame you like, including what's happened while you owned your home (or any other period) -- from 1995 to now.

How has your home value changed in the time you've owned it?
The HPRI only reviews trough-to-peak changes for each market in our evaluation, so your local experience in value change from when you purchased your home to today will of course be different. To see what's happened with home prices during the time you've owned your home, check our home value estimator, MyHPI. To see where you are in your mortgage, use our mortgage amortization calculator.

Tracking and projecting your home equity
The combination of home price increases and your retirement of the amount you owe may see you with a larger equity stake than you think. If you're interested in how much equity you've got in your home or are looking to pursue a future home equity goal, you'll want to check out our Home Equity Calculator and Projector.

10 metro areas that have recovered the most

Metro
Area
Peak high
value
Post-peak
Low value
Current
value
Amount
now
above
prev peak
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 265.43 255.42 740.23 178.88%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 270.44 248.93 684.72 153.19%
Boise City, ID 294.15 162.12 678.26 130.58%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD) 171.22 163.99 391.48 128.64%
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 220.91 194.37 504.66 128.45%
Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine, TX (MSAD) 167.39 158.88 373.80 123.31%
Salt Lake City, UT 352.48 259.64 725.72 105.89%
Colorado Springs, CO 260.28 217.27 529.50 103.43%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 212.90 196.80 428.26 101.16%
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA (MSAD) 280.83 213.07 558.92 99.02%

Can some locations or properties still not have achieved recovery?

Since the HPRI compares values that are derived from an entire metropolitan area (some of these quite expansive) it's certainly possible that some homes or neighborhoods have not participated in the home price recovery as strongly as other areas in the same metro. In fact, and although it continues to diminish, CoreLogic reported that in the third quarter of 2021, the total number of residential properties with negative equity was still 1.2 million homes, or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties. Even with values kicking higher still in the fourth quarter of 2021 it's very likely that only a portion of these homes have moved to a positive equity stake, so the problem still persists, even if it's not nearly the widespread issue it once was.

Also, even if home prices don't increase for such homes or areas, homeowners will eventually come to a positive equity position as they make regular payments on their mortgages. In addition, even small changes in home values will tend to help fill in any value gap over time. In this way, even if the value of a specific home hasn't yet returned to a previous high, it's not as though the homeowner doesn't won't ever have any equity.

For example, in the case of a home purchased at a previous price peak in early 2006 (and assuming no refinance of the mortgage) the homeowner would have paid off about 29 percent of the original loan amount by now. This calculation doesn't include any downpayment the homeowner may have made, so the equity stake would be increased by that amount, too. Purchases made before the peak period or after prices began to descend would see this equity stake be increased as well. Given interest rates in place in 2006 -- 30-year FRMs at about 6.5% in the third quarter, odds favor that a homeowner would have refinanced at least once (if not twice) by now to take advantage of falling rates, and a 3.5% refinance in September 2012 would still even see the homeowner with more than a 27% retirement of principal by now.

How has the value of YOUR home changed?

HSH.com has developed a tool that allows you to see how the price change in your market has affected the value of your home. With our "Home Value Estimator," you select your market and the time frame in which you have owned your home to estimate how the changes in your market have impacted your home’s value. If your marketstill hasn't fully recovered and you think your home is still underwater, find out when you'll have positive home equity again with our KnowEquity When calculator.

All now recovered, the remaining 90 metro areas

Here's a look at the remaining 90 metro areas from the FHFA's HPI list.

Metro
Area
Peak high
value
Post-peak
Low value
Current
value
Amount still
below peak
value
Amount
now above
prev peak
Akron, OH 176.87 140.31 256.54 n/a 45.04%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 183.68 167.74 253.22 n/a 37.86%
Albuquerque, NM 239 189.08 329.33 n/a 37.79%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 204.52 152.23 260.14 n/a 27.20%
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA (MSAD) 286.58 196.74 419.74 n/a 46.47%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA 198.46 138.18 362.48 n/a 82.65%
Bakersfield, CA 251.68 118.09 279.13 n/a 10.91%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 267.88 205.36 312.78 n/a 16.76%
Baton Rouge, LA 229.76 213.25 325.12 n/a 41.50%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL 212.25 174.2 330.19 n/a 55.57%
Boston, MA (MSAD) 268.64 219.89 418.31 n/a 55.71%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 240.45 181.87 268.46 n/a 11.65%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY 146.25 144.95 289.28 n/a 97.80%
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA (MSAD) 257.29 212.22 417.31 n/a 62.19%
Camden, NJ (MSAD) 223.17 162.9 266.84 n/a 19.57%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 317.15 132.43 413.22 n/a 30.29%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 286.83 202.76 519.66 n/a 81.17%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 194.03 159.08 379.87 n/a 95.78%
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL (MSAD) 237.34 159.68 266.37 n/a 12.23%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 179.3 149.37 288.55 n/a 60.93%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 173.32 134.59 246.71 n/a 42.34%
Columbia, SC 187.2 160.87 280.74 n/a 49.97%
Columbus, OH 180.21 157.79 335.42 n/a 86.13%
Dayton-Kettering, OH 155.86 125.09 235.02 n/a 50.79%
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD) 207.56 111.96 276.22 n/a 33.08%
El Paso, TX 196.64 171.29 274.63 n/a 39.66%
Elgin, IL (MSAD) 200.55 128.56 225.69 n/a 12.54%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise, FL (MSAD) 351.93 176.96 471.5 n/a 33.98%
Frederick-Gaithersburg-Rockville, MD (MSAD) 277.32 205.83 328.93 n/a 18.61%
Fresno, CA 273.46 137.64 331.23 n/a 21.13%
Gary, IN (MSAD) 187.48 158.71 291.53 n/a 55.50%
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI 183.88 136.78 353.23 n/a 92.10%
Greensboro-High Point, NC 167.17 142.08 262.96 n/a 57.30%
Greenville-Anderson, SC 192.11 172.41 367.49 n/a 91.29%
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT 172.57 144.44 201.58 n/a 16.81%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 196.18 189.66 375.24 n/a 91.27%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 159.53 144.77 299.07 n/a 87.47%
Jacksonville, FL 299.66 180.72 451.31 n/a 50.61%
Kansas City, MO-KS 200.33 163.86 346.96 n/a 73.19%
Knoxville, TN 205.31 179.35 379.4 n/a 84.79%
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI (MSAD) 208.89 139.18 232.24 n/a 11.18%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 269.31 100.08 345.37 n/a 28.24%
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 191.02 181.85 274.9 n/a 43.91%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD) 276.13 165.7 407.13 n/a 47.44%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 200.42 186.54 338.87 n/a 69.08%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 175.72 143.89 285.18 n/a 62.29%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD) 415.66 214.89 578.02 n/a 39.06%
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI 235.28 188.5 336.2 n/a 42.89%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 263.21 187.47 377.74 n/a 43.51%
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA (MSAD) 212.85 182.83 295.12 n/a 38.65%
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD) 300.32 235.04 400.99 n/a 33.52%
New Haven-Milford, CT 201.22 151.76 224.77 n/a 11.70%
New Orleans-Metairie, LA 265.29 222.54 379.35 n/a 42.99%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (MSAD) 271.35 218.69 350.8 n/a 29.28%
Newark, NJ-PA (MSAD) 270.19 206.18 323.34 n/a 19.67%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 341.09 161.48 483.77 n/a 41.83%
Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD) 307.79 162.3 474.61 n/a 54.20%
Oklahoma City, OK 200.62 192.45 341.56 n/a 70.25%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 201 181.2 348.32 n/a 73.29%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 285.98 141.13 390.66 n/a 36.60%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 284.84 173.05 370.18 n/a 29.96%
Philadelphia, PA (MSAD) 237.82 202.67 354.24 n/a 48.95%
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ 339.44 160.11 558.92 n/a 64.66%
Pittsburgh, PA 179.18 174.16 328.68 n/a 83.44%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 336.01 247.23 608.16 n/a 80.99%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 242.7 176.66 335.62 n/a 38.29%
Raleigh-Cary, NC 198.56 174.25 388.86 n/a 95.84%
Richmond, VA 238.47 183.47 346.34 n/a 45.23%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 271.97 127.8 369.09 n/a 35.71%
Rochester, NY 138.55 134.1 225.64 n/a 62.86%
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA 258.5 126.62 351.14 n/a 35.84%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA 298.51 187.55 465.49 n/a 55.94%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 294.15 196.55 534.56 n/a 81.73%
Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA (MSAD) 295.78 202.37 571.82 n/a 93.33%
St. Louis, MO-IL 211.09 172.4 298.34 n/a 41.33%
Stockton, CA 273.38 108.54 336.15 n/a 22.96%
Syracuse, NY 148.85 139.8 228.79 n/a 53.71%
Tacoma-Lakewood, WA (MSAD) 293.04 182.36 528.79 n/a 80.45%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 310.63 169.16 504.61 n/a 62.45%
Tucson, AZ 304.73 173.86 415.26 n/a 36.27%
Tulsa, OK 187.61 169.81 314.23 n/a 67.49%
Urban Honolulu, HI 194.5 173.87 327.87 n/a 68.57%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 274.02 206.42 328.5 n/a 19.88%
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (MSAD) 206.53 122.71 296.99 n/a 43.80%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSAD) 282.22 201.72 372.84 n/a 32.11%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL (MSAD) 321.25 153.81 470.74 n/a 46.53%
Wichita, KS 183.78 166.17 289.63 n/a 57.60%
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ (MSAD) 216.16 165.05 263.34 n/a 21.83%
Winston-Salem, NC 173.4 153.35 276.8 n/a 59.63%
Worcester, MA-CT 231.68 169.3 318.03 n/a 37.27%

More about the HPI

The Home Price Index is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It has been published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and precursor agencies since the fourth quarter of 1995.

For each market, the index uses 1990 home prices as a basis. Those dollars are "normalized" to a value of 100 for each market; that is, regardless of the actual dollar cost, the index value for a given market becomes 100. For example, a home price in Allentown, PA in 1990 might have been $65,000; this becomes a base value for Allentown of 100, and changes since then are presented as percentage changes from that initial 100 value.

The HPI is based on purchase-only transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The HPI does not include property transactions backed by FHA, VA, USDA or non-conforming (e.g. jumbo) mortgages.

The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same properties.

The HPI shows the relative change in prices in a metropolitan area from quarter to quarter or period to period. HSH.com has pulled out information from each area to show the amount of change from 1990 to the pre-housing-crisis peak, the low achieved during or after the peak, and how much improvement has taken place since that near-term bottom.

The FHFA uses the revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in Bulletin 20-01. If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions.

For more details on the HPI and how it is put together, see http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Housing-Price-Index-Frequently-Asked-Questions.aspx

Mahesh January 28, 2019 9:58 am

one of the most important information who planning to invest in a home. Thanks, Keith Gumbinger.

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