For your consideration: Our observations regarding What's holding back the housing market?

For your consideration: Our observations regarding What's holding back the housing market?

Home Value Tracker - Home Value Changes by Metro - 2nd Quarter 2023

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The second quarter of 2023 includes the typical "spring homebuying season", which usually sees home sales improve and home prices firm up. That was true this year; on a quarter-to-quarter basis, only 52 metros saw a decline in home values, down from 184 in the first quarter. However, on an annual basis, the reverse was true; in the second quarter of 2023, 48 metros posted year-over-year declines in home values, up from only 17 in the first quarter.

September 5, 2023 - HSH.com releases today an updated Home Value Tracker, the firm's quarterly analysis of home values changes in the nation’s top 400 metropolitan housing markets. Developed by HSH, a premiere consumer destination for mortgage information and shopping since 1979, HVT reveals the 10 metropolitan areas with the fastest annual home price increases and the 10 with the smallest annual gains. In addition, HSH offers a lookup tool for value changes in over 400 metropolitan areas.

HSH's recurring evaluation reviews home value changes in more than 400 of the most populous metropolitan areas, and displays home value changes for each from compared to the previous quarter and two quarters as well as over the last one-, three- and five-year periods. A home value lookup tool allows users to see their local market's changes over these fixed time points; in addition, a custom-time-period lookup tool called Home Value Tracker-MyHVT allows users to see how values have changed in any of the 400 metros during any time period from 1995 to now, allowing them to see what's happened to the value of their home during the time they've owned it.

The MyHVT tool allows homeowners to enter the purchase price of their home and the quarter in which they purchased it, then calculates changes in the home's value during this ownership period, producing a current price estimate based on home value trends in the selected metro area over the selected time period.

In the second quarter of 2023, some formerly ultra-hot housing markets cooled off further. These include locations such as Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown TX, Boise ID, the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City metro area and more, where home values decreased as much as 8.42% compared to the same period last year. In all, 48 metro areas of the more than 400 markets in HSH's Home Value Tracker saw a decline in value compared to the second quarter of 2022. Of course, this meant that more than 350 metros saw home value increases, and 45 metro areas posted double-digit increases in value, including places such as Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL, Winston-Salem NC, Syracuse NY and Savannah GA, among others, with value gains of up to 16% in some markets.

The second quarter of each year includes the traditional "spring homebuying season", a time when housing acidity picks up. More active buyers -- additional demand -- into markets helps re-ignite home price increases after the softer fall and winter months. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, when 184 metros saw lower quarter-over-quarter home values, only 52 saw a decline in home values for the second quarter. However, in a sign that markets have changed with the large rise in mortgage rates over that time, there were only two metro areas that posted a similar decline in the second quarter of 2022.

With homebuyers still facing adverse conditions, there's a bit of a tug-of-war for prices in place as we head into the closing periods of 2023. Propping them up is a still-severe lack of homes available for purchase, and viable and desirable properties that come onto the market are still commanding premium prices. Pulling them in the other direction is slackening demand, both due to the change in seasons and mortgage rates that have returned to 7% and above in the middle of the third quarter. Due to few available homes to buy, home values are likely to continue to be supported, but this may only prevent more widespread and considerable softening in the coming months.

Value changes from a sampling of major metro areas Percent value increase since 2Q22
Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA -3.14%
Champaign-Urbana, IL 10.14%
Manchester-Nashua, NH 5.62%
Midland, TX 2.23%
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ -2.67%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC/SC 6.68%

See the full set of more than 400 metro areas here: https://www.hsh.com/home-value-tracker.html

HSH.com’s Home Value Tracker uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index for insight on changes to housing market values. HVT is based on an "all transactions" index involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and includes both purchase and refinance transactions. The data does not include property transactions backed by FHA, VA, USDA or private-market non-conforming (i.e. jumbo) mortgages.

About HSH.com
Since 1979, HSH.com has been a trusted mortgage resource for consumers seeking independent, objective and expert-level mortgage information, forecasts and data. HSH.com offers unique analysis, calculators, tools and content to help demystify first mortgages, home equity loans and lines of credit, reverse mortgages and more. HSH.com empowers homebuyers and homeowners to fully understand their home financing choices and provide opportunities for them to engage with partners to execute their transactions.

Website: https://www.hsh.com
Twitter: @HSHassociates
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