Today's mortgage rates

Mortgage Rates Rise Considerably

As expected, mortgage rates rose appreciably this week, as the prospects for a near-term cut in rates by the Federal Reserve have faded.

As reported by Freddie Mac today, the average offered interest rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by twenty-two basis points (0.22%) to 7.10%, the highest this average have been in nearly five months.

Average offered rates for fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages fared no better, posting a rise of 23 basis points (0.23%), pushing back up to 6.39%, the highest mark for this loan term since the week of November 30, 2023.

Relative to a long-term fixed-rate mortgage, the offered rate for the most popular ARM was somewhat more attractive again this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average offered rate for first five years of a 5/1 hybrid ARM increased by only eleven basis points (0.11%) in their latest survey week, lifting the average rate to 6.52%. With fixed-rate mortgages elevated again and a half-percentage point or more of interest rate differential available, some homebuyers may more strongly consider taking an ARM to achieve at least some payment savings in the early years of their loan.

ARMs are not a set-it-and-forget-it loan product, though. If you're interested in learning the advantages (and drawbacks) of ARMs, you should read HSH's comprehensive Guide to Adjustable Rate Mortgages.

With the recent inflation news still less than stellar and the economy continuing to perk along at a solid clip, investors have become increasingly convinced that the hoped-for June cut in rates is no longer the most likely case for monetary policy.

The change in direction for price pressures from retreat to advance has even seemed to catch the Federal Reserve a bit off-guard. As recently as just a few weeks ago, the Fed's official outlook was that inflation would continue to settle on a "bumpy" path, but that the prospects for as many as three cuts in rates this year remained in place.

This week, Fed Chair Powell spoke at a forum in Washington and offered "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence [regarding inflation returning to the Fed's 2% goal] and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence." Without such confidence that inflation is likely to continue to trend downward, the Fed will not be cutting rates very soon. We'll hopefully learn a little more when the Fed meets again at the end of the month, but it is likely that at least two or three consecutive inflation readings below expectations will be needed before monetary policy will be changed.

At present, futures-market investors place just a 15% probability that the first cut in rates will come in June, and only about a 40% chance that July is "in play" at this point.

Unfortunately for potential home buyers, mortgage rates are back up past the 7% mark again. While there's little to like about the present position of rates, it does appear as though the bulk of the rise is over for now, and there is a reasonable chance that they hold around present levels over the next few days.

Each week in HSH's MarketTrends newsletter, we track and discuss economic conditions that affect mortgage rates and their impact on housing markets and consumers. Read the most recent edition of MarketTrends or subscribe for email delivery.