Last market hits the finish line! A final update for HSH's Home Price Recovery Index.

Last market hits the finish line! A final update for HSH's Home Price Recovery Index.

HSH.com in the news — 2018

December 19, 2018: "The Fed Just Raised Interest Rates. Here’s What That Means for Your Wallet.", a New York Times advisory piece by Tara Siegel Bernard included a bit of analytics from HSH.com vice president Keith Gumbinger:

The Fed’s latest rate increase won’t be “too damaging,” said Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com, which tracks the mortgage market. But the combination of the recent increases and changes in the tax code that restricted the interest deduction “is a bit of a double pinch for some.” The good news related to adjustable-rate mortgages — which typically have a fixed rate for a certain number of years, and then adjust each year thereafter — is that few people have them, Mr. Gumbinger said. But borrowers who are already out of their fixed-rate period and are set for an annual reset in December can expect to pay more. They will most likely see a rise to about 5.36 percent for 2019, up from a rate of 4.3 percent over the past year.

December 8, 2018: "The Year ahead", a Real Estate Today Radio segment included an interview with Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president.

December 2, 2018: "Metro Phoenix is getting less affordable for homebuyers", an Arizona Republic review of local housing conditions by Catherine Reagor included data provided by HSH.com:

The Phoenix area ranked in the top 10 for most affordable cities on national mortgage firm HSH.com’s quarterly list from 2014-17. Last summer, it fell to 17. According to its latest ranking, the typical Valley home buyer must earn $56,231 a year to afford a median-priced home in the area — and that’s with a 20 percent down payment. Last year, a Valley buyer needed to make only about $49,000 a year to afford the typical home.

November 28, 2018: "Dallas-Fort Worth home prices are up almost 70 percent since the Great Recession", a Dallas Morning News market update by Real Estate Editor Steve Brown included a quote from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

"Home prices continue to rise, trimming the number of metropolitan areas that have yet to see all homes returned to previous peak values," HSH's Keith Gumbinger said in the report. "Although the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo., metro still holds the top slot, Texas markets dominate the most recovered group, holding five of the 10 slots."

November 24, 2018: "Secrets of the Pros", a Real Estate Today Radio segment featured HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger discussing mortgage tips and tricks.

November 15, 2018: "House hunting in Denver metro? Better bring in $90K a year to get an average home", a Denver Post article by Aldo Svaldi included some calculations provided by Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's VP:

Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com’s vice president, calculates a metro Denver buyer in the third quarter needed to earn $91,276.61 to afford a loan on the median-priced home, which the National Association of Realtors lists at $450,100.

November 14, 2018: "This Is How People Can Actually Afford to Live in Seattle", a Vice.com Late Capitalism column by Matt Pentz references some analysis provided by HSH.com:

Though the official poverty level for a single-person household in America was $12,140 in 2017, an individual in King or Snohomish counties earning $50,400 or less was considered low-income. Stated more bluntly: A middle-class income throughout much of the country amounted to near-poverty status here. Per mortgage research website HSH.com, metro households now need to make $109,274.91 per year in order to afford the principal, interest, taxes and insurance payments on a median-priced home. That’s a payment of $2,549.75 every month, and that’s if homebuyers are putting down 20 percent up front. At 10 percent, the required salary increases even further: to $129,018.81.

October 31, 2018: "How to Find the Cheapest Mortgage When Rates Are Rising", a Consumer Reports advisory on changing market conditions by Tobie Stanger included some direction from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

Search online with the name of your home state and terms like “community bank mortgage,” “s&l mortgage,” and “credit union mortgage.” We found lots of options this way. Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a mortgage information website says these smaller lenders typically have better rates for ARMs and offer better terms and rates to people with variable income streams, like the self-employed.

October 26, 2018: "Spike in mortgage rates sends chill through metro Detroit home sales", a Detroit Free Press review of market challenges by Susan Tompor featured a quote from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

A few things are happening now: Mortgage rates are going up, making monthly payments more costly, particularly for those who are stretching to buy the home of their dreams. Some buyers gave up shopping — driving down demand — when the market was so hot that they never felt they had a decent shot at a move-in ready home. "Things are definitely cooling off," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president for HSH.com. Rates for a 30-year mortgage, for example, peaked at an average of 4.9 percent this month — up nearly a full percentage point from 3.88 percent a year ago. And mortgage rates are expected to keep climbing.

October 27, 2018: "Scary things", a Real Estate Today Radio segment where HSH.com vice president dispelled some myths about getting a mortgage in today's marketplace.

October 17, 2018: "What you need to make to buy a home in the 10 most pricey U.S. cities", a CNBC.com post by Shawn M. Carter included a wide range of data calculated by HSH.com:

Mortgage-information website HSH.com determined where it’s most expensive to buy a median-priced home in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Researchers “calculated monthly principal, interest, property tax and insurance payments buyers have to pay for a median-priced home."

September 15, 2018: "Show me the money", a Real Estate Today Radio segment that included HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger discussing mortgage market conditions as we head into the fall buying months.

September 13, 2018: "Where you’ll need to earn a six-figure annual salary to buy a median-priced home", a Washington Post review of market conditions by Michele Lerner included facts and figures provided by HSH.com:

Rising prices and higher mortgage rates continue to affect affordability for buyers. A recent analysis by HSH.com, a mortgage marketplace, found that home buyers need a median salary increase of $5,300 to buy a house now, compared with this time last year.

September 3, 2018: "Tampa Bay’s home prices are more affordable than Orlando and Miami", a Tampa Bay Times discussion of local home affordability by Graham Brink included some comments from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

"It’s good news in your area that home prices are still relatively affordable," said HSH.com vice president Keith Gumbinger. "But incomes are not growing enough to keep up with rising home prices. If that goes on for long, the market will quickly become less affordable."
That’s why, at least for now, home buyers here have it better than in Orlando and Miami, the other two Florida cities HSH studied. Home prices in both those cities have risen faster.

August 20, 2018: "You need to make $131K a year to afford San Diego home, study says", a San Diego Union-Tribune article by Phillip Molnar about difficult housing market conditions featured analysis from HSH.com vice president Keith Gumbinger:

Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com’s vice president, said rising mortgage rates are only a small part of the difficulty for potential buyers.
"Unfortunately, even if rates don't go up very much,” he said, “part of the issue we run into is that home prices are rising so quickly." Part of the issue, Gumbinger said, is a lack of homes for sale across the nation. "In many markets, there is simply such little inventory to buy,” he said.
“Even if you're well-positioned to buy a home, there might not be anything you can afford to buy or anything you can afford to buy that is desirable to buy."

August 20, 2018: "How much salary do you need to afford a median-price home in South Florida?", a Sun-Sentinel market report by Ron Hurtibise featured a quote from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

According to a report last week from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, consumers in early August viewed home-buying conditions less favorably than any time over the past 10 years, with prices judged less favorably than any time since 2006, Gumbinger noted.
“So disenchantment with current conditions appears to be growing,” he said, adding that a few scenarios are possible in reaction: Increased inventory to help cool price increases, which Gumbinger called “possible but difficult.”
Faster income growth to help consumers catch up to housing inflation — “a protracted process,” Gumbinger said. “Or significantly higher mortgage rates that crush demand, which would tend to reflate inventories even as it levels (or even deflates) prices,” he said.
“Some confluence of the three seems most likely over time, but for now, conditions remain challenging for those hoping to buy a home.”

July 14, 2018: "Home Values Are Rising, So Grab the Benefits and Avoid the Risks", a Consumer Reports debt advisory piece by Tobie Stanger included some words of caution from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com vice president:

But be careful about how much you borrow. Many homeowners who refinanced or took out large home equity lines leading up to the Great Recession ended up owing more than their homes were worth when prices plummeted, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH, a mortgage data provider. While most economists don't see the same debacle on the horizon, history serves as a warning.
"It can take many years to build equity in your home but only a few purchases or a small decline in value to wipe it all out," notes Gumbinger.

June 21, 2018: "Where Can You Afford a Home?", a New York Times home affordability graphic put together by Michael Kolomatsky featured original research and calculations from HSH.com:

How much do you need to make to buy a home? It depends on the city, according to HSH.com’s recent report on home-buying costs in America’s 50 largest metropolitan areas.
Taking into account current prices, 30-year-fixed mortgage rates and insurance costs (and assuming a 20 percent down payment and industry-standard mortgage-debt-to-earnings ratios), the report arrived at the minimum annual income needed to buy a median-priced home in each area.

June 9, 2018: "How to plan for next round of Fed interest rate hikes", a Detroit Free Press advisory by Susan Tompor included a discussion of interest rate trends with Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

Tailwinds right now indicate that mortgage rates will be trending higher in the months ahead. The 30-year fixed rate is expected to move closer to 5 percent by year end and possibly nearer to 5.5 percent by June 2019, according to Keith Gumbinger, vice president for HSH.com. The average 30-year fixed rate was 4.54 percent last week, down from 4.56 percent a week earlier. By contrast, the 30-year rate averaged 3.89 percent a year ago. "A lot depends on inflation and the Fed," Gumbinger said. "Some economists are predicting that the next recession might show up in perhaps 2020."

June 1, 2018: "Getting Down Payment Help Now. Sharing Home's Gain (or Loss) Later.", a New York Times mortgage product analysis by Tara Siegel Bernard feature calculations and commentary from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

THE CALCULATION. Consumers who apply for the Unison program should consider how much they may save on their monthly payment over the time they expect to stay in the home. The hard part is the back end of the calculation, or what they may give up in appreciation. “You can’t really know the true future cost until the future actually comes,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com, which tracks the mortgage market.

May 21, 2018: "5 things you need to know before taking out a home equity loan", a CNBC.com consumer advisory by Beth Braverman included some advice from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

3. You'll need to shop around. Get a quote from your current lender, as well as from at least two others, including a credit union and an online bank. Use those quotes to negotiate to make sure that you're getting the best deal. "You can find fairly wide variances in price, interest rates, accessibility and terms from place to place across town," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage site HSH.com.

April 25, 2018: "Even rising mortgage rates won't stop homebuyers", a Money.CNN.com review of housing market conditions by Kathryn Vasel included a forecast and a quote from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's VP:

Experts predict rates will climb to around 5% by the end of the year. That could be the thing that finally cools off the market and pushes some buyers onto the sidelines, according to Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com. "There is an important psychological point when you cross 5%," he said.

April 24, 2018: "Home prices are on an epic run", a Money.CNN.com market advisory by Kathryn Vasel included some color from HSH.com vice president Keith Gumbinger:

On a national level, home prices are up 6.7% from their peak in July 2006, and have been rising continuously for the past 70 months. "It's getting increasingly difficult to be a buyer," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com. The 30-year mortgage rate has climbed a half a percentage point in the last year, according to Freddie Mac, but at 4.47%, rates are still below historical averages. The only thing that might slow demand is if rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage climb above 5%, Gumbinger said. "There is an important psychological point when you cross 5%," he said. "That's when people will really start to pay attention and rethink buying over affordability. You may find some borrowers who step to the sidelines."

April 19, 2018: "Is it time for a mortgage-burning party?", a Syndicated Feature by Marilyn Melia featured a some data provide by Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's VP:

Mortgages with shorter terms usually cost more per month than a 30-year mortgage since more principal is added to the bill. But with low rate charges, the monthly cost on shorter terms is more affordable. The Iowans Chedester serves weren’t alone. “Since 2011, in refinance transactions, the share of 15-year fixed rate mortgages has been as high as 41 percent,” notes Keith Gumbinger of mortgage data firm HSH Associates.

April 10, 2018: "Home Renovators Should Have No Trouble Getting Credit; They Just Need To Find Workers", a Forbes.com brief item on tax law changes by Kathleen Howley featured a quote from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

“If the use of the HELOC isn’t related to your home, it’s not deductible anymore,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a mortgage research firm. “That’s going to funnel more equity extraction into home renovation projects.”

April 3, 2018: "What Is a Closing Disclosure Form? A New Mortgage Document Home Buyers Must Check", a Realtor.com look at homebuyer challenges by Daniel Bortz featured some advice from HSH.com vice president Keith Gumbinger:

If you do spot problems, what then? Depending on what the underlying issue is, “changes can be made in a manner that does not disrupt the closing of the loan," says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com, a mortgage information website. In some cases, though, the closing may have to be postponed so that a new closing disclosure can be sent out with a new three-day review period.

March 3, 2018: "OKC makes affordable homes list", an Oklahoman market update by the editorial staff included some analysis provided by Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

Financial publisher HSH.com found Oklahoma City to be one of the most affordable housing markets in a recent study of income and home prices in the 50 largest metropolitan areas of the country. Using fresh quarterly home price data from the National Association of Realtors, and incorporating property tax and insurance costs, HSH.com mortgage expert Keith Gumbinger analyzed each market to calculate the annual salary a potential homebuyer would need to buy a median-priced home. The most affordable metropolitan areas were 1. Pittsburgh, requiring an annual salary of $33,509; 2., Cleveland, requiring $35,656; and 3. Oklahoma City, requiring $36,460.

February 27, 2018: "Is metro Denver’s housing market failing? New report says it’s very close.", a Denver Post review of market conditions by Aldo Svaldi included some context from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

Borrowers need nearly $80,000 in salary to qualify for typical home The median represents the midway point, where half are below and half above. As a larger share of families can only afford homes below the median price, that intensifies competition and price gains in the bottom half of the market. “You have more competition in lower-cost strata of homes,” Gumbinger said. Gumbinger said the mortgage markets have held fast to one standard. The monthly house payment can’t exceed 28 percent of income. And unless incomes start rising at a faster pace, more buyers could find themselves priced out.

February 26, 2018: "Income needed to buy a home in San Jose soars $19K in three months", a Curbed.com local market review by Adam Brinklow included a snipped of analysis from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

“You guys suffer from limited supply maybe more than any other place in the country,” HSH’s Keith Gumbinger told Curbed SF. “In fact, for the quarter there’s only a handful of places in the country where prices were up. So this is not a blip, it’s actually bucking the trend.”

February 9, 2018: "Will an interest-only mortgage work for your situation?", a short advisory in The Day by the editorial staff included a quote from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

Investors often take advantage of interest-only mortgages, using the money freed up by this type of loan to pay for the renovations which are often necessary in homes purchased as an investment. Keith Gumbinger, writing for the mortgage resource HSH.com, says other borrowers are interested in investing the money they would otherwise pay toward the mortgage in the stock market or other ventures.

February 5, 2018: "Dow extends slide: What should investors do?", an Asbury Park Press market advisory by Michael Diamond included some trend information from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's VP:

Adding to the uncertainty: Fed President Janet Yellen was replaced by Jerome Powell. Watch the video above for more on changes at the Fed. Interest rates already have been rising, although by the end of the day, investors had been moving money from equities into bonds, causing rates to come off of their highs, said Keith Gumbinger, an analyst with HSH.com, which tracks interest rates.

January 23, 2018: "Is 2018 the year to buy a house?", a Money.com market outlook by Kathryn Vasel included commentary from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

Sellers will remain in the driver's seat as buyers continue to face affordability issues thanks to low housing supply. "The challenges for buyers in the market haven't changed that much from last year" said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage website HSH.com. "Prices cant go up at the pace they have been in those hot markets forever," said Gumbinger. "Because of the difficult in affordability, sales will slow in those marketplaces." Mortgages have already crossed the 4% threshold in 2018, hitting 4.04% last week. "Be as prepared as you can," recommended Gumbinger. "Get your credit as high as it can be, get your loan paperwork in order and easy to get to."

January 14, 2018: "Tax changes may take the shine off home equity loans", a Minneapolis Star-Tribune review of changing consumer conditions by Jim Buchta included a quote from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's VP:

But some say change will lead fewer to pile up debt. There are indications that’s already happening. After recent increases in mortgage rates, refinancings are falling. Keith Gumbinger, vice president with HSH.com, said the days of using home equity for debt consolidation and payment relief on high-interest credit cards are probably over. “After so many years of homeowners having no equity,” Gumbinger said, “the rules have changed to deter the use of home equity as a household budget management tool.”

January 5, 2018: "Why Buying a Home Just Got a Lot More Complicated", a Consumer Reports  forward-looking piece by Tobie Stanger included a forecast from Keith Gumbinger, HSH.com's vice president:

• Mortgage rates could rise. Locking down an interest rate now could be a smart move. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its short-term lending rate several times this year, which would immediately affect adjustable-rate mortgages. Currently five-year ARMs have an average interest of 3.47 percent, according to HSH.com, a mortgage information publisher. That said, observers aren’t expecting 15- and 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which are still near historic lows, to jump precipitously. Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH, projects that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, now averaging 3.99 percent, could rise to around 4.5 percent. “We’re not likely to even hit 5 percent this year,” he says. “I don’t think it’s a deal-breaker for most borrowers.”

January 2018: " How to Shop for a Continuing Care Retirement Community", a Kiplinger.com discussion of finances in retirement by Pat Mertz Esswein and Sandra Block included some context from HSH.com VP Keith Gumbinger:

Most people finance the entrance fee by selling their house. If you can't immediately sell your home, you may be able to pay the entrance fee using a home-equity line of credit. (You can usually borrow up to 80% of a property's appraised value.) When you sell the house, you can pay off the line of credit. If you don't have a credit line, set one up months before applying to a CCRC, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage research firm HSH.com. Banks are less likely to extend a credit line if they expect the homeowner to repay the debt within two or three years, he says, and they often charge an early-termination fee.

Back to HSH.com in the News — 2017

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