Can these home price trends predict the next NFL champion? Updated on: Feb 12, 2024

• Median-home price: $406,300
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 4.02%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 73.4 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $110,095.93
• Average ticket cost: $120.27
• Average resale ticket cost: $273
• Stadium name: M&T Bank Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2012 season
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 4.2 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 3.66 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/22/24 - 3 to 1

1/29/24 update: Eliminated. The Ravens found themselves in a 10-point hole at halftime they couldn't overcome. Baltimore's defense put up a shutout over the last two quarter, but the offense was stagnant, managing just a lone field goal with a little more than two minutes left in the game. Kansas City's defense contained Lamar Jackson all day, and the #1 seed in the AFC fell to a more experienced Kansas City squad.

1/22/24 update: Moving on. Baltimore came off their bye week raring to go, and Lamar Jackson did Lamar Jackson things all day, throwing for two touchdowns and running for two more. Tied with Houston at the half, the Ravens defenst put up a shutout over the last half of the game, while the offense put up 24 unanswered points. The #1 ranked AFC team faces a showdown with the #3 Chiefs next week which promises to be an entertaining show. Until then, Baltimore can enjoy their victory.

• Median-home price: $260,600
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 6.89%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 61.6 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $78,855.48
• Average ticket cost: $89.65
• Average resale ticket cost: $419
• Stadium name: Highmark Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 1993 season
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 7.5 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 6 to 1

1/22/24 update: Eiminated. In a very competitive, entertaining contest, someone was going to come up short. Back and forth scoring drives were the order of the day until the fourth quarter, when Kansas City put up a touchdown and Buffalo was blanked. A late Buffalo field goal to tie the game went wide right, echoing a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss by Buffalo back in 1991. While this wasn't nearly the same thing, it is still "wait until next year" again for the Bills.

1/15/24 update: Moving on. It was the Josh Allen show early and late in the game, as the Bills quarterback threw for two touchdowns and ran for another by the halfway point of the second quarter. The Steelers gave it a go, but a late TD pass in the fourth quarter closed it out for Buffalo. Next up, Kansas City comes in, a team that just proved that they can play in adverse weather conditions, too.

• Median-home price: $328,800
• Price increase,3Q22 to 3Q23: 4.55%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 62.85 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $89,246.45
• Average ticket cost: $115.13
• Average resale ticket cost: $577
• Stadium name: Arrowhead Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2022
• Current odds 1/12/24 - 11 to 1
• Updated odds 1/16/24 - 8 to 1
• Updated odds 1/22/24 - 4.5 to 1
• Updated odds 1/29/24 - 2.2 to 1

2/12/24 update: Champions... again! The Chiefs overcame a 10-point deficit early on, and battled to keep it a one-score game for the last three quarters. A partially-blocked 49er PAT proved to be a crucial difference, allowing KC to tie the game up and send it to overtime. The Chiefs defense bent but didn't break, allowing only a field goal in overtime, and Pat Mahomes and company methodically marched down the field to score a game-winning touchdown with 0:03 left on the OT clock. Of course, since the Kansas CIty metro area had higher home-price appreciation than did San Francisco, the outcome was really never in doubt. Hail to the Chiefs, the first back-to-back champions in 20 years, making it three in the last five years. Head coach Andy Reid has now built a dynasty.

1/29/24 update: Moving on. Pat Mahomes was efficient, Travis Kelce caught 11 balls for 116 yards and a score, and the running game chewed up clock. Although Baltimore had more total yards, Kansas City's defense bottled up Lamar Jackson, who was the Ravens lead rusher, running for 54 yards but managing only a first-quarter touchdown and a field-goal drive late in the game. KC's headed to the Superbowl again, for the third time in the last five years, and is looking to become a back-to-back winner.

1/22/24 update: Moving on. Kansas City and Bufflo put on an entertaining game, with few mistakes or penalities and lots of scoring. Back and forth it went, but the Chiefs put up a fourth quarter touchdown and KC's defense blanked the Bills. In windy conditions, a late, game-tying field goal by Bufflo went "wide right", and KC was on its way to the championship game again.

1/15/24 update: Moving on. A truly frigid game at Arrowhead, with game time temps near zero. The cold and wind didn't much seem to bother the Chiefs, but the visiting team from Miami didn't seem to enjoy it all that much. Kansas City's headed north to Buffalo next, where the long-range NOAA forecast says partly sunny and 26F... comparatively shorts and t-shirt weather.

• Median-home price: $345,600
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q12: -1.12%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 62.8 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $101,133.37
• Average ticket cost: $117.45
• Average resale ticket cost: $216
• Stadium name: NRG Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2019 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: Never
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 71 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 34 to 1

1/22/24 update: Eliminated. It was a tall order for Houston to walk into Baltimore and pit their -0.12% home price appreciation against Baltimore's solid 4.02% year-over-year gain, and while the visitors hung in their for the first half, it was all Ravens over the final two quarters, as they put up 24 points to Houston's zero.

1/15/24 update: Moving on. The Texans came ready to play, putting up 45 points against the Browns #1 overall ranked defense. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdown passes, but Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes as Houston flexed some defensive muscles of its own. A tall order for the Texans comes next, as they travel to meet the AFC's #1 seed in Baltimore on Saturday, a market that has both strong home price appreciation and a quality football team.

• Median-home price: $236,700
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 3.95%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 64.4 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $68,871.06
• Average ticket cost: $112.17
• Average resale ticket cost: $228
• Stadium name: Cleveland Browns Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2020 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: Never*
• Current odds 1/12/24 - 31 to 1

1/15/24 update: Eliminated. It was fun while it lasted, but Houston besieged the Browns, and veteran Joe Flacco's string of strong play coming out of quasi-retirement came to an end in Houston.

• Median-home price: $602,500
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 5.70%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 61.1 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $156,473.60
• Average ticket cost: $94.95
• Average resale ticket cost: $442
• Stadium name: Hard Rock Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 1984
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 18 to 1

1/15/24 update: Eliminated. The brutal cold and Kansas City's more efficient offense were too much to overcome for the Miami Dolphins. The game was still reasonably close at halftime, but all Kansas City after that, and while Miami isn't likely to be happy that their season is done, they are probably glad to go back to warmer weather.

• Median-home price: $231,100
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 4.01%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 68.5 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $65,874.23
• Average ticket cost: $120.10
• Average resale ticket cost: $392
• Stadium name: Acrisure Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2021 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 132 to 1

1/15/24 update: Eliminated. The weather in Buffalo did what it does and then some, causing the game to be postponed until Monday. Whether the time shift hurt or not, the Steelers saw their season end as Josh Allen put the Bills up by 21 by halfway though the second quarter, throwing two touchdown passes and breaking off a 52-yard run of his own for a score. Pittsburgh kept at it, but another touchdown pass with a little over six minutes to play salted the game away for Buffalo.

• Median-home price: $1,300,000
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 0.00%
• Mortgage rate: 7.28 percent
• Homeownership rate: 54.2 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $336,659.66
• Average ticket cost: $144.81
• Average resale ticket cost: $410
• Stadium name: Levi's Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2019
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 3 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 2.75 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/22/24 - 2.5 to 1
• Updated odds 1/29/24 - 2 to 1

2/12/24 update: Eliminated. A solid showing by both the offense and defense was nearly a mirror image. The Niners defense shut out Kansas City in the first quarter; the Niners offense was shut out by Kansas City in the third quarter. The game was otherwise a one-score affair, with a blocked PAT a crucial turning point, allowing Kansas City the chance to tie the game late. Overtime saw the 49ers drive to the Chiefs 5-year line, then stall, and a field goal try was good. However, this gave Kansas City the ball, more than seven minutes of clock time and three time outs to get down the field, and Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes and Co. used all of that, scoring a game winning touchdown with three seconds left in OT. Brock Purdy had a solid outing, but the more experienced hand won out in the end, as often seems the case. A good game and one to be proud of for the Niners, but a painful loss in the end.

1/29/24 update: Moving on. If there was ever a football game that was truly a tale of two halves, it was this one. Sam Francisco's defense was porous in the first half and Detroit rolled to a 17-point lead at the half. In-game adjustments and a lucky play to start the second half ignited the 49ers offense and inspired their defense, as a near-interception-turned-into-reception off the face mask produced the first touchdown of the third quarter. Two more TDs and a field goal saw the Niners put up 27 points over the latter half of the game, while the defense gave up just a single score with about a minute left. A onside kick by Detroit was recovered by the 49ers "hands team" sealing a three-point victory and a return to the title game. As expected, the metro with zero home price appreciation over the last year overcame one with a greater gain in value.

1/22/24 update: Moving on. As other teams battled it out during wild card weekend, the 49ers had a bye week, and were rested and ready to take on the upstart Green Bay Packers. The Pack were game, down by just a single point at halftime and up 21-14 at the end of the third quarter, but the Niners D blanked Green Bay in the fourth quarter while a Jake Moody field goal closed the gap. A late rushing touchdown by Christian McCaffrey with about a minute left sent the Packers back home Another upstart team comes next in the form of the Detroit Lions, the feel-good story of the playoffs so far.

• Median-home price: $385,700
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 2Q23: -1.13%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 61.8 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $112,245.86
• Average ticket cost: $107.87
• Average resale ticket cost: $497
• Stadium name: AT&T Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 1995
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 8.5 to 1

1/15/24 update: Eliminated. It was a rough end to a promising season for the Cowboys, who got put into a deep hole as Green Bay put up four first-half touchdowns, Playing catch up, the Cowboys tried to make a game of it, with Dak Prescott throwing 60 times for over 400 yards and putting up three TDs but also two interceptions. The upstart Packers pulled away early, kept the pressure on, and Dallas was done for the year.

• Median-home price: $266,600
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 0.23%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 74.8 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $75,297.49
• Average ticket cost: $91.89
• Average resale ticket cost: $302
• Stadium name: Ford Field
• Last time in playoffs: 2016 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: Never
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 23 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 11 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/22/24 - 8 to 1

1/29/24 update: Eliminated. A painful loss for the Lions, who had a very solid first half and saw a 17-point lead disappear by the time the third quarter had come to a close. A freak play that might have been an interception -- or even just an incomplete pass -- somehow ended up as a 49ers completion that turned into a TD, and a fumble on the next series led to another. Meanwhile, Detroit could manage only one late TD as an offset to the Niners 27-point second half barrage. The Lions had a great season, but our reckoning that the metro with lower home price appreciation would win this round came true. That said, we'd bet there are a lot of Lions fans who would have gladly given up their meager 0.23% increase in home values over the last year for a chance at football glory for their team.

1/22/24 update: Moving on. It's motor city madness this year, as the Lions outlasted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jared Goff had a solid showing and two fourth quarter TD passed put the Lions up for good. Tampa Bay still had a shot late in the game, but a Detroit interception with 1:35 left in the game allowed them to take a knee to close out the came and send the Bucs back to Florida. The Lions will head out of the frenzied confines of Ford Field an head to the west coast to face the conference's #1 squad for the conference championship.

1/15/24 update: Moving on. For the first time in 32 years, the Detroit Lions are moving deeper into the playoffs, having outlasted the Los Angeles Rams to win by a single point. The two quarterbacks who were swapped for one another just a few seasons ago saw Matt Stafford have a statistically better day in the loss, and Detroit managed just a single field goal in the second half and no points in the fourth quarter but the Lions defense kept LA to just two field goals and held on for the victory. Up next is a Tampa Bay team that had a strong performance of its own and comes from a market with strong home price gains, too.

• Median-home price: $415,000
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 2.44%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 70.0 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $109,688.45
• Average ticket cost: $119.94
• Average resale ticket cost: $234
• Stadium name: Raymond James Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl winner: 2020 season
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 96 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 34 to 1

1/22/24 update: Eliminated. It's all over for the NFC South winners, who headed to Detroit to try to keep the dream of a championship alive. Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns, but late in the fourth quarter and needing a touchdown and successful two-point conversion just to tie the game, he threw an interception and left the Buccaneers with no chance to catch the Lions. Tood Bowles' squad will look to regoup and plan for next year, but at least they can still look at their 2020 Lombardi Trophy for consolation.

1/15/24 update: Moving on. The Buccaneers rumbled over the fading Eagles, as QB Baker Mayfield had a great day when it counted most, throwing three TDs and more than 300 yards in the win. Even then, it was a one-score game at the half, but Philly could find no spark and were shut out for the remainder ofthe game. Tampa Bay heads to Detroit for the Divisional round, while Philadelphia has some soul-searching to do, as it was dominant in the first two thirds of the season but lost six of its last seven games.

• Median-home price: $368,500
• Price increase, 3Q226 to 3Q23: 5.53%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 71.2 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $104,324.48
• Average ticket cost: $127.06
• Average resale ticket cost: $523
• Stadium name: Lincoln Financial Field
• Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2022
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 19 to 1

1/15/24 update: Eliminated. Cliche', but it's "bye bye birdie" for the Eagles for 2023. Philadelphia stumbled into the playoffs, losing five of its last six regular-season games, and had few answers for a spirited Tampa Bay team. There will likely be considerable change in Philly for next year, and it appears that All-Pro center Jason Kelce will hang up his cleats after 13 seasons. A good start met a bad end for Philly, so it's "wait'll next year" for the Eagles.

• Median-home price: $897,600
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 1.38%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 50.9 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $227,251.89
• Average ticket cost: $103.62
• Average resale ticket cost: $320
• Stadium name: SoFi Stadium
• Last time in playoffs: 2021 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2021
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 51 to 1

1/15/24 update: Eliminated. Matthew Stafford and the Rams were thisclose to overcoming Detroit, holding the Lions to s single field goal in the second half and only needing one more of their own to secure the win... but alas, it didn't come, as the Lions defense kept the just far enough away from the end zone. The one-point difference in the final score was the closest content outcome of Wildcard Weekend, and was a tense, entertaining game to watch, but didn't work out for the squad from LA.

• Median-home price: $305,200
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: 14.80%
• Mortgage rate: 7.04 percent
• Homeownership rate: 56.2 percent
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: $84,491.45
• Average ticket cost: $134.81
• Average resale ticket cost: $384
• Stadium name: Lambeau Field
• Last time in playoffs: 2021 season
• Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
• Current odds: 1/12/24 - 101 to 1
• Updated odds: 1/16/24 - 31 to 1

1/22/24 update: Eliminated. Green Bay's young team showed plenty of heart and skill, but two interceptions off the arm of Jordan Love and an offense that managed zero fourth-quarter points meant the boys from Titletown were done for the season. Their performance this season and in the playoffs should send fair warning to the NFC north that the Pack resurgence in the post Aaron Rodgers era is for real.

1/15/24 update: Moving on. The team from the smallest housing market -- and the one with the highest home-price appreciation -- was a considerable underdog going into the game from both the oddsmakers and by our own methodology. Turns out that mattered little, as the Packers simply ran roughshod over the Cowbows, as nearly everything they did worked out.

Image source: Wikimedia Commons / Chris Rand

Sources:

• Median-home price: National Association of Realtors
• Price increase, 3Q22 to 3Q23: National Association of Realtors
• Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS, Mortgage Bankers Association
• Homeownership rate: Census Bureau
• Required salary to afford median-priced home: HSH.com
• Average ticket cost: Statista.com
• Resale Ticket Cost: USAToday.com
• Stadium name: Google search results
• Last time in playoffs: pro-football-reference.com
• Last time in Super Bowl: pro-football-reference.com
• Current/Updated odds: FanDuel