X

How are our long-range forecasts panning out? See the Mid-year review of our 2025 Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook.

How are our long-range forecasts panning out? See the Mid-year review of our 2025 Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook.

Today's Mortgage Rates - 07/18/2025

Personalize the results below to get your best mortgage rate

Personalize your quotes and see mortgage rates just for you.

 

LOADING OFFERS...

Mortgage Rates Tilt Upward

Mortgage rates rose modestly for a second straight week.

Freddie Mac reported today that the average offered interest rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rose by three basis points (0.03%) to 6.77%, still holding near the center of a four-week range.

Average offered rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by a bit more than its longer-term sibling, posting another six basis point increase. This put the average rate for the most common shorter-term mortgage at 5.92%, just about where it was one month ago.

At present, a 5/1 ARM might offer a homebuyer a lower-cost alternative to a long-term fixed-rate mortgage, but the difference in rate between 30-year FRMs and 5-year hybrid ARMs shrank a little this week again. The Mortgage Bankers Association said that the initial fixed interest rate on a hybrid 5-year ARM increased by seven basis points, rising to 6.08%.

With the increase, the gap in rate compared to a 30-year FRM decreased to sixty-seven basis points (0.67%). Comparing this average rate against that for a 30-year FRM, a homebuyer with a $300,000 loan amount who selects the 5-year ARM would be able to save over $10,000 in interest cost over the first five years of the loan, while also reducing the loan's outstanding balance by nearly $2,200 compared to the 30-year FRM.

ARMs aren't for everybody, though. To help decide whether one might work for you, read HSH's Comprehensive Guide to Adjustable Rate Mortgages.

Upward pressure on longer-term interest rates came from a range of influences this week. The latest inflation reports suggest we may be starting to see some of the effect of the "blanket" tariffs put into place back in April, as the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% for June, and core CPI by 0.2%. These increases lifted the annual rates of CPI inflation to 2.7% overall (from 2.4%) and to 2.9% (2.8%) for core CPI. While the increases were still fairly mild, they were also modest steps in the wrong direction for anyone hoping that the Fed will start cutting rates later this month.

On the topic of the Fed, markets were again whipsawed this week by reports that President Trump was preparing to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, hard polled some Republican leaders and even had a termination letter drafted. Shortly thereafter, the President said that no such action was imminent -- "we're not planning on doing it," he said.

Whether it's just posturing to try to get the Fed to cut rates more quickly or something else, it simply added to upward pressure on bond yields, lifting the yield of the influential 10-year Treasury back closer to 4.5% again. Although it has settled back a little from that level, it is still rather above where it began the week, and that likely means somewhat firmer mortgage rates in the market over the coming days.

Each week in HSH's MarketTrends newsletter, we track and discuss economic conditions that affect mortgage rates and their impact on housing markets and consumers. Read the most recent edition of MarketTrends or subscribe for email delivery.

Week 30-year-Fixed 15-year-Fixed
07/17 6.750% 5.920%
07/10 6.720% 5.860%
07/03 6.670% 5.800%
06/26 6.770% 5.890%
06/18 6.810% 5.960%
06/12 6.840% 5.970%
06/05 6.850% 5.990%
05/29 6.890% 6.030%
05/22 6.860% 6.010%
05/15 6.810% 5.920%
05/08 6.760% 5.890%
05/01 6.760% 5.920%

Mortgage Choices at a Glance

Loan type/terms Fixed 30 years Fixed 15 years/
20 Years
Hybrid ARM Traditional ARM Balloon Mortgage
Rate changes
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Usually after fixed period of 3, 5, 7 or 10 years
  • After that, annual change typical
  • Fully variable
  • Typically changing at one-year intervals
  • Some have shorter change intervals
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
Benefits
  • Low, stable payment
  • Usually easiest qualification
  • Stable payments
  • Builds equity faster
  • Lower total interest costs than 30-year term
  • Lower rates than fully fixed-rate mortgage
  • Can sometimes borrow larger loan amount for same income
  • Can have lowest interest rates
  • Qualification may not depend upon today's interest rate
  • Often has lower interest rate/monthly payment over balloon period than fixed rate
  • Similar to hybrid ARM
Drawbacks/Risks
  • Can have highest total interest cost over time
  • User may "buy" more rate stability than actually needed, increasing cost
  • Requires higher income to qualify
  • Less affordable monthly payment
  • Funds commited to payment cannot be used elsewhere
  • Stable payment for a number of years, then unpredictable
  • Rates can jump by as much as 6 percentage points at first adjustment
  • Payments fluctuate at each rate change
  • Unpredictable, rates can change as much as 2 percentage points at each adjustment
  • Loan fully due and payable when balloon period ends
  • Must be paid off or refinanced in unknown market conditions
Alternative strategy
  • Consider Hybrid ARM with appropriate fixed period
  • Consider 30-year term and prepaying loan to preserve cash-flow flexibility
  • Consider Fixed rate mortgage or longest possible fixed period, if loan hold period not known
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ameliorate rate and payment risks for a given period
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ensure continued loan availability
These may be useful for...
  • Purchasing a home
  • First-time homebuyers
  • Refinancing to improve cash flow/lower payment
  • Refinancing to lower total interest cost
  • Retiring mortgage more quickly
  • Building or rebuilding equity more quickly
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is seven years or shorter, and where borrower can handle increase in monthly payments
  • Purchasing or refinancing when interest rates are near top of cycle, and are likely to fall, or sale or refinance is anticipated within three years
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is three years or longer and home will be sold prior to end of balloon period
Consider if
  • Buying or refinancing a home and planning on owning for longer than 10 years
  • Buying second home
  • Refinancing to build equity
  • Paying off mortgage before life event (retirement, etc)
  • Buying a home and expect to move before fixed period ends, or know income will rise to offset payment risk, even in worst-case scenario
  • Buying or refinancing when income can handle frequent payment changes and worst-case scenario for rates over a four-year period
  • Buying a home and expect to move before balloon period ends, or have resources to pay off mortgage if refinance not available
When shopping, ask about
  • "Full cost" vs. "No cost" refinances, prepaying loan to shorten term if desired
  • If 20-year term makes payment too high, whether 25-year term is available
  • Interest rate caps, for first and subsequent adjustments, worst-case scenario
  • A history of the Index the loan is keyed off, margin and caps
  • Whether or not there is any built-in refinancing option when the balloon period ends
Useful tools & resources

Latest Mortgage Rate Analysis

HSH's longer-range outlook for mortgage rates, where we review our last forecast,discuss current market influences and provide our expectations for mortgage rates over the next nine weeks.

Mortgage Calculators

Mortgage rates and more