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How are our long-range forecasts panning out? See the Mid-year review of our 2025 Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook.

How are our long-range forecasts panning out? See the Mid-year review of our 2025 Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook.

Today's Mortgage Rates - 07/12/2025

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Mortgage Rates Drift Higher

After weeks of modest declines, mortgage rates drifted higher this week./p>

As reported by Freddie Mac today, the average offered interest rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rose by five basis points (0.05%) to 6.72%, squarely in the middle of a three-week range.

Average offered rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by just a touch more, sporting a six basis point increase. This put the average rate for the most common shorter-term mortgage at 5.86%, just above a four-month low.

At present, a 5/1 ARM might offer a homebuyer a lower-cost alternative to a long-term fixed-rate mortgage, and the difference in rate between 30-year FRMs and 5-year hybrid ARMs expanded a little this week again. The Mortgage Bankers Association said that the initial fixed interest rate on a hybrid 5-year ARM increased by two basis points, rising to 6.01%.

With the decrease, the gap in rate compared to a 30-year FRM widened to seventy-one basis points (0.71%), offering homebuyers a chance at interest savings of over $10,700 over the next five years with a $300,000 loan amount. To learn more about ARMs, you should read HSH's Comprehensive Guide to Adjustable Rate Mortgages.

At a time of year when financial market activity typically begins to slow, mortgage and other interest rates often wander about, directionless. This year promises to be somewhat different, in that the date implementing new tariffs on a range of trading partners has again been kicked down the road. Originally slated for July 9, the so-called "pause" in tariffs has been extended until August 1.

While that specific date doesn't have great significance for interest rates or even inflation, it may complicate the expected timing of the next cut by the Federal Reserve. Any increase in levies will take a bit of time to start to be seen in price pressures. Any from newly-expanded levies may not even start to be seen until later in the year, beyond the Fed's September meeting, when a cut in rates is currently widely expected to occur. The Fed may choose not to trim rates if a measurable increase in inflation is expected to come.

As such, it's seemingly back to "wait and see" for the Fed, leaving only emergent economic data to move interest rates over the coming days and weeks. This week has featured precious little of that, but the calendar gets busier over the next week, when new data on inflation for June will be released, among a burst of fresh looks at various aspects of the economy.

The yields that most influence mortgage rates are in a little backing-and-filling mode at the moment, but the general tenor of them seems biased toward slight upward movement. As such, we expect to see flat to marginally higher mortgage rates in the market during the next few days.

Each week in HSH's MarketTrends newsletter, we track and discuss economic conditions that affect mortgage rates and their impact on housing markets and consumers. Read the most recent edition of MarketTrends or subscribe for email delivery.

Week 30-year-Fixed 15-year-Fixed
07/10 6.720% 5.860%
07/03 6.670% 5.800%
06/26 6.770% 5.890%
06/18 6.810% 5.960%
06/12 6.840% 5.970%
06/05 6.850% 5.990%
05/29 6.890% 6.030%
05/22 6.860% 6.010%
05/15 6.810% 5.920%
05/08 6.760% 5.890%
05/01 6.760% 5.920%
04/24 6.810% 5.940%

Mortgage Choices at a Glance

Loan type/terms Fixed 30 years Fixed 15 years/
20 Years
Hybrid ARM Traditional ARM Balloon Mortgage
Rate changes
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Usually after fixed period of 3, 5, 7 or 10 years
  • After that, annual change typical
  • Fully variable
  • Typically changing at one-year intervals
  • Some have shorter change intervals
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
Benefits
  • Low, stable payment
  • Usually easiest qualification
  • Stable payments
  • Builds equity faster
  • Lower total interest costs than 30-year term
  • Lower rates than fully fixed-rate mortgage
  • Can sometimes borrow larger loan amount for same income
  • Can have lowest interest rates
  • Qualification may not depend upon today's interest rate
  • Often has lower interest rate/monthly payment over balloon period than fixed rate
  • Similar to hybrid ARM
Drawbacks/Risks
  • Can have highest total interest cost over time
  • User may "buy" more rate stability than actually needed, increasing cost
  • Requires higher income to qualify
  • Less affordable monthly payment
  • Funds commited to payment cannot be used elsewhere
  • Stable payment for a number of years, then unpredictable
  • Rates can jump by as much as 6 percentage points at first adjustment
  • Payments fluctuate at each rate change
  • Unpredictable, rates can change as much as 2 percentage points at each adjustment
  • Loan fully due and payable when balloon period ends
  • Must be paid off or refinanced in unknown market conditions
Alternative strategy
  • Consider Hybrid ARM with appropriate fixed period
  • Consider 30-year term and prepaying loan to preserve cash-flow flexibility
  • Consider Fixed rate mortgage or longest possible fixed period, if loan hold period not known
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ameliorate rate and payment risks for a given period
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ensure continued loan availability
These may be useful for...
  • Purchasing a home
  • First-time homebuyers
  • Refinancing to improve cash flow/lower payment
  • Refinancing to lower total interest cost
  • Retiring mortgage more quickly
  • Building or rebuilding equity more quickly
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is seven years or shorter, and where borrower can handle increase in monthly payments
  • Purchasing or refinancing when interest rates are near top of cycle, and are likely to fall, or sale or refinance is anticipated within three years
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is three years or longer and home will be sold prior to end of balloon period
Consider if
  • Buying or refinancing a home and planning on owning for longer than 10 years
  • Buying second home
  • Refinancing to build equity
  • Paying off mortgage before life event (retirement, etc)
  • Buying a home and expect to move before fixed period ends, or know income will rise to offset payment risk, even in worst-case scenario
  • Buying or refinancing when income can handle frequent payment changes and worst-case scenario for rates over a four-year period
  • Buying a home and expect to move before balloon period ends, or have resources to pay off mortgage if refinance not available
When shopping, ask about
  • "Full cost" vs. "No cost" refinances, prepaying loan to shorten term if desired
  • If 20-year term makes payment too high, whether 25-year term is available
  • Interest rate caps, for first and subsequent adjustments, worst-case scenario
  • A history of the Index the loan is keyed off, margin and caps
  • Whether or not there is any built-in refinancing option when the balloon period ends
Useful tools & resources

Latest Mortgage Rate Analysis

HSH's longer-range outlook for mortgage rates, where we review our last forecast,discuss current market influences and provide our expectations for mortgage rates over the next nine weeks.

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